The data show that Americans are ill-prepared for retirement, and gained virtually no ground over these three years. The low saving rate and weaker returns in the stock market held back wealth, despite strong gains in housing. With the baby boomers rapidly approaching retirement, we need to start saving fast, and are showing no signs of doing so. |
The economy is living with it, and corporations are turning in strong profits despite high energy costs. People forget that energy isn't as big a part of the economy as it was 25 years ago. |
The Fed doesn't like to switch policy very quickly. Unless something goes wrong, I think they are going to stop (after the March move) and hold rates there for an extended period. |
The geopolitical tensions are affecting people. They're not happy with Washington and when they're not happy about Washington, it ends up making them not happy about the economy. |
The leading indicators are telling us that we have got a slowdown because of the disruption from the hurricanes, but it is not as dire as the September drop would suggest. |
The only inflation out there is energy. |
The problem is natural gas, and how bad that is depends on how bad the winter is going to be — and it's not starting off well. It's cold. |
The real question is not what he does, but what he says. |
The second quarter is shaping up to be stronger than expected. |
The times they are a-changing. |
There is a risk that energy could break out into a bigger inflation problem. We have gotten through Katrina and oil prices have backed off a bit, but there is a risk that if we have a harsh winter, energy prices will rise again. |
There is just no spare refining capacity around to deal with these losses. We don't have any cushion. |
There is no change for the Fed. They are more focused on the real economy. They are looking for any sign that core inflation is going up. |
There is still no inflation out there. |
These are generally very good numbers and another sign that the Fed is going to be raising interest rates sooner rather than later. |