84 ordspråk av David Wyss
David Wyss
They have to accumulate dollars to keep the yuan down relative to the dollar. But since China has moved to peg the yuan to a market basket of currencies, instead of just the dollar, it's logical for them move their foreign exchange holdings to the same basket.
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They like inflation where it is now. But they're worried that it's creeping up.
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This is the continuing story of the rich getting richer. Clearly, the gains in wealth are going to the top end.
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This may mean less change in the Fed statement on Tuesday, and increases the chances of a rate hike in March.
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This was certainly a successful launch for the 30-year bond.
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To me the point for the administration in this pick is getting this over with quickly.
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Usually coming out of a recession, you get a real spurt in productivity, which we got, but now things are settling down to what by historical standards are still very strong gains in productivity.
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We can't run econometric models. The numbers aren't good enough.
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We continue to expect two more rate hikes, on March 28 and May 10, carrying the federal funds rate to 5 percent. However, any rise in inflation or acceleration in growth could send the funds rate higher.
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We did see a bit of acceleration in wages. We were up 0.4 percent in January. That may be good news for the workers, but it is something that is going to make the Federal Reserve a bit worried about the possible impact of inflation and may increase the probability that they're going to raise rates again.
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We don't seem to be having any trouble financing our large and growing trade deficits.
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We expect the stock market to have another mild gain, sort of like it did in 2005. We're looking for the market to up about 6% by the end of the year.
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We had expected to see a bigger rebound. On the other hand, some of the pain is lifted by the fact that they did revise up both November and December, so things are still looking pretty good.
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We have a real savings shortfall.
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We might have a lower unemployment rate and a somewhat lower gross domestic product, but it wouldn't be a huge impact.
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