139 ordspråk av Donald Selkin

Donald Selkin

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 I think we'll consolidate around these levels, maybe pull back a bit next week, but nothing much.

 I would say in the next few weeks we can kind of grind in place, maybe a little to the upside. Maybe we'll get through the pre-announcement period without too much trouble, and then we'll get into third-quarter earnings in October, and they should be mostly in line.

 I'm encouraged. You get a strong rally for a few days, a couple of days of selling so people can take some profits, then new buyers come in at the lower level. That's the classic definition of an uptrend.

 I'm happy that things are going up in the markets but when things get too bullish and too, I don't know if they're exuberant, but too optimistic, someone will find something between the lines on the Fed statement saying, 'but they said this, they cautioned here', maybe to have to be vigilant, so people might use that as an excuse to stay profits.

 I'm maybe more optimistic for the end of the year, but for the next few weeks, I think we are still in these treacherous waters. We're just going to have to grin and bear it, and then maybe we'll see a run up in November and December.

 I'm not so sure that the rally was commensurate with the news out of the Fed. They seemed to say that they're going to keep rates low for a long time, which wasn't a surprise, but maybe people felt better seeing it spelled out more clearly.

 If it comes in too weak, you get worries about the economy. If you get a blowout number, everyone will get obsessed about interest rates again, the bond market will go into a tizzy, and stocks will slide.

 If we can go steady for the rest of August and September, we could set ourselves up for a nice rally in October.

 If we can hit these economic numbers and the earnings are good, and we can chug a little higher this week, that would be helpful. The wild card is still oil.

 If we show a build on the slight improvement in the labor market we've seen, if the economy continues to grow, there will be a decent November.

 If you're in a traditional balanced fund or a traditional basket of old-line stocks, you're losing money.

 In the next few weeks, if the [earnings] pre-announcement period goes smoothly, which I think it will, and the economic news keeps showing improvement, I think we can make some gains. I don't think we're going to rip-roar higher, but I think we could still make some choppy gains through the end of the year, maybe hit those psychological round numbers by the end of the year -- 2,000 on the Nasdaq, 10,000 on the Dow.

 Individual stocks can go up, but the market is too overbought internally and there is too much complacency for a rally.

 Intel's news will have an impact on tech tomorrow, but it's going to be overshadowed by the jobs report.

 Iraq's army is reportedly weaker than it was in 1991 [during the Gulf war], and our military technology is reportedly a lot stronger. So there's a perception that if there is a war, it will be quick. Everyone's been hoping that once the war is over, corporations and consumers will pick up spending as well, so you have investors not wanting to be left out should that happen.


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