149 ordspråk av Doug Porter

Doug Porter

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Beneath this calm surface, the economy is churning mightily below, with wide divergence among sectors.

This government is trying to offer as much tax relief as possible. We can thank the commodity boom for that.

There is a bit of risk because it will probably pump up real retail sales ... from all the various tax cuts.

These together will probably increase consumer spending and at the margin . . . it will put a bit of upward pressure on growth and could potentially put that much more pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates.

You always have to put these numbers in context; there was quite a spike in April, and if you take the average of these two months, it's pretty close to the trend we've seen in the past year. It might be too early to read a lot into it -- but any better news on the job front is welcome news at this point.

[Monday's 10-year yield] is really not out of line with the average rate we've seen in the past six to nine months. The kind of levels where I'd be getting concerned would be from about 4.5 percent and up.

It basically drove home the point that the economy was healthy before the hurricanes and indeed may have remained healthy afterward as well.

I think what the market is waiting for is some signs of stabilization in the global economy, and especially the U.S. economy.

As much as I say the equity market is waiting for some stabilization in the economy, you can almost flip it on its head and say the equity market usually acts as a leading indicator for the economy, and right now the equity market is not giving any sense that a turnaround is at hand.

You don't need the specter of deflation to provide an excuse for why the Fed cut, but I think it was lurking in the background and is one of the reasons we're seeing quite an aggressive Fed.

And I think a lot of it flows from a combination of very positive Canadian economic data on Thursday, as well as more signs out of the U.S. that the U.S. economy is cooling to a sustainable pace and that the (Federal Reserve) will be on hold for some time.

That he says 'the downside risks predominate,' however, suggests we can expect further interest-rate cuts over the course of the spring. I would expect a 50 basis point (half-percentage point) cut at the next meeting.

though to be more realistic I think it will struggle to get back above 90 cents.

No real common thread on the equity story. I guess one area of strength was in the financial sector. Partly, that was due to the rebound in bond prices.

(On Wednesday) it was oil and gas and on Thursday it's paper and forest products and gold, which is a name you don't hear too often on the winning side.

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