I think the key in the market is technology, because what has been giving us this extraordinary earnings growth is spectacular earnings growth from a lot of tech companies. They are telling us the second half is going to be slower. So I think the broader market earnings trend is going to be not sharply down, but trending down. |
I think what happened today is a lot of investors are disappointed about the outcome of the OPEC meeting. |
It's hard to disagree with Greenspan. Our own market view is equities are fairly valued, but they had a tremendous period of catch-up last year and the year before when they were very undervalued We would expect only 7, 8, 9 percent price appreciation next year. |
Market participants have shifted focus from the immediate event of the Fed meeting to a longer-term view. |
Realistically, if it eliminates a degree of risk about the future, that's good news. |
Technology is such a huge part of market cap right now; if that part of the market is performing poorly, it's really tough for the other indices to go up. |
The groups that will do well in this kind of environment are groups that were ignored for some time; food, beverages, household products, necessities. |
The jobs report is much like the previous ones this year. There's something in it for everyone. |
The key is if the economic data stays soft, maybe we don't have to worry much about interest rates anymore. Then we need to worry about earnings. What gave us a really strong move in stock prices from late May until about two weeks ago was this heightened optimism that maybe interest rates are at that high. That gave you a relief rally. Now reality is setting in -- if we've seen the worst on interest rates then we've seen the best on earnings. |
The market is adjusting to a trend that the market hasn't lived with in some time. Inflation is going up and interest rate are going up. |
The market's grappling with earnings slowing down. |
The way the economy tends to slow down is in things that either we as individuals or businesses can push off into the future. Auto sales are slowing. That is [due to] individuals this time. We can wait to buy a new car. These announcements from the technology sector appear to imply that a lot of companies are saying we can wait a little while with our business spending. |
We think this is an opportune time for investors to reduce exposure to U.S. equities. |
What we're seeing in Asia now is that rates of growth are slowing down. It's Latin America where you see growth picking up. |