40 ordspråk av Ed Wolfe

Ed Wolfe

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The driver (for beating the estimate) is the additional revenue falling to the bottom line from the fuel surcharge, ... It (earnings per share) is a strong number any way you look at it.

There will be relatively few shares sold, ... And UPS still has $1 billion left over from the IPO to repurchase shares on the open market to support the price if need be.

In the past, Cam's outgoing personality occasionally stirred the passions of investors, ... We believe that a new, less opinionated voice may put some investors at ease.

If volumes are flat, which is what both FedEx and UPS warned a couple of weeks ago, there's no way shippers are going to pay it. It's very pie in the sky. Unless they're going to shrink their business, there's no way they'll get that rate.

The driver (for beating the estimate) is the additional revenue falling to the bottom line from the fuel surcharge. It (earnings per share) is a strong number any way you look at it.

We expect the stock to rally on the unexpected fuel surcharge announcement. Back of the envelope fuel surcharge could equate to 1 to 2 cents upside in the third quarter, 4 to 5 cents a share upside for the fourth quarter and 15 to 20 cents upside during 2001 if it were to remain in effect.

This will be very positive for UPS over the long term. This is not material to earnings per share during the next few years, but over time it will be an important growth engine. It is also important to UPS because of the validation of the political time and effort they spent in winning support on Capital Hill for these slots.

Slowing growth is looming for the parcel carriers, in our view. Evidence of the slowing U.S. economy is abundant. Although the parcel carriers have reported a slowdown in growth, we are convinced that they will not be immune to the significant slowing in U.S. economic growth that is currently taking place.

We continue to believe that while domestic express volumes may be close to a bottom, ground volumes, (international express shipments) and especially yields are several quarters away from bottoming.

Our sense is that the rejection was more a statement of employee sentiment in the airline industry rather than a statement regarding overall labor relations between UPS and the Teamsters. However, we believe UPS would want to put this contract to bed before focusing on the national Teamster contract.

We continue to believe that the President will invoke his authority under the Taft-Hartley Act and order union members back to work in the event for a strike. Individual members of Congress from West Coast states appear to be taking a more aggressive position, and have been actively calling or writing the ILWU and PMA to encourage the parties to at least extend the current contract, which would minimize the risk of a complete work stoppage.

We have noted in the past that our third-quarter earnings per share estimate of 47 cents (versus First Call consensus of 57 cents) would probably be too low if UPS settled early and a second round of freight diversion did not occur. As a result of last night's announcement, we will likely be raising our third-quarter EPS estimate in the next few days, once we get better visibility about some details of the contract.

We continue to believe that the President is under some pressure to not appear anti-labor, and thus will probably not intervene until some time next week at the earliest. But despite his recent popularity with the Teamsters and the AFL-CIO, Bush will, in our view, most likely choose to protect the economy, which appears to increasingly be at risk the longer the port disruption continues.

We continue to believe that the president is under some pressure not to appear anti-labor, and thus will probably not intervene until sometime next week at the earliest. But despite his recent popularity with the Teamsters and the AFL-CIO, Bush will, in our view, most likely choose to protect the economy, which increasingly appears to be at risk the longer the port disruption continues.

We expect the company to continue to pick up momentum through the fourth quarter and 2003 with the Teamster contract further behind them and as the economy improves. We expect consensus EPS for 2003 to come down toward our $2.46.

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