There is a new cautious optimism emerging in the industry. Improved economic prospects in Europe and Asia, combined with an improving situation in the US, will lead to reduced losses in 2006 and strengthened profitability in 2007. While the trend is positive, we are nowhere near sustainability. |
This is the first time in a year we have seen two consecutive months of freight traffic growth above 5% which points to a resurgent world economy. |
Turning growth into profitability has never been more critical. Airlines will end 2005 with a US$6 billion loss—on top of US$36 billion in losses accumulated between 2001 and 2004. As we battle the high price of fuel, cost efficiency will continue to be a top priority—not only for airlines but for every partner in the value chain including airports and air navigation service providers. |
Unfortunately, there is no mechanism to eliminate existing capacity. |
We are filling the planes-and with high load factors-but there is a lot to do before the industry's balance sheet recovers. The industry faces several risks. The rising price of oil continues to kill our profitability. The airlines are managing capacity as carefully as they are managing costs. As the record aircraft orders of last year are delivered, matching capacity to demand will become even more critical. And Avian Flu is the wild card for 2006. |
We are working on four core projects: 100 percent e-ticketing globally by the end of 2007; bar-coded boarding passes; common use of self-service check-in kiosks; and radio-frequency identification for baggage management. |
We fully understand the principles of supply and demand, |
We fully understand the principles of supply and demand. But it is difficult to see this as anything other than a $14 billion cash grab by the oil industry that is pouring salt into the wounds of a global crisis. |
We must chase paper out of our business, |
We must continue to evolve to a low-cost industry that provides high-quality, cost-efficient service across the board. This should be at the top of our common agenda. |
We will only see profitability in 2007 when we expect a return of US$6.2 billion. This is a net profit margin of 1.5%, not even enough to cover the cost of capital and nowhere near recovering the billions lost since 2001. A long and difficult agenda for change involving all partners is still ahead of us. |