111 ordspråk av Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

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Things aren't as bad as Jason (Furman) said but they're not as good as the labor secretary said. The markets clearly were expecting a better number than 96,000. You've got to wonder ... are corporations sending us a signal that the underlying economy is not as good as people thought?

Members of Congress, especially Republicans, are beginning to realize that around the country, even among their supporters, they're being viewed as dysfunctional, unable to get anything done. So I think the Republicans are starting to come together, at least a little in the Senate on immigration.

I think we're very close. ... The White House has put tremendous pressure on the Hill to do something.

I think at the Fed they believe we're getting near full employment. You've got unit labor costs going up. If we get a very strong jobs number, I don't totally rule out a 50-basis point (half of a percentage point) hike in June.

There's an adage that the Fed cuts or hikes one time too many.

If I was a member of Congress I'd try to press him on is there a light at the end of the tunnel on measured rate hikes, and at what point the Fed decides enough is enough. You have to think after the August move we probably are in the eighth inning, but I doubt he'll be that explicit.

If you look at who the markets would be the most comfortable with, and that has to be one of the top criteria, then Feldstein has got to be the No. 1 pick,

That's a commentary that the markets think the bigger concern is the soft patch, not inflation, ... Nobody knows how big a soft patch this is. The key to understanding a lot of this is obviously the price of oil.

It's changed a lot of thinking about earnings in the second quarter,

My take is that they know they've got a tough selling job ahead, ... I think they have to sell it (the policies) to Wall Street, to the capital, and to the public. The administration's conclusion is that Snow isn't the best salesperson for the job.

There was a lot of speculation around [Washington] a week ago that something big could come, that the White House needed to trot out something bold ahead of the convention, ... I've talked to several people who've come away from this thinking it's unlikely.

The feeling is that Bush might call for a study, a commission, a blue ribbon panel on tax change, but that, if you start talking about radical tax reform, it becomes a big, fat target for criticism.

The Red Sox won four games in a row after being down three nothing, so anything is possible,but I think the markets would perceive this as a long shot. I think at some point today (Wednesday) Kerry and his people get together and decide they don't want to be perceived as sore losers.

This is not comparable to 2000. If we were talking 3,000 or 4,000 votes, it'd be a big story. But I think the markets will perceive this as a temporary delay of the inevitable.

Bush is going to get a post-election free pass on virtually all economic issues for the next few months.

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