Clearly, these are disappointing numbers and should put to rest the notion that there a tech-driven miracle in U.S. productivity in the last few years, ... There was a boom, and booms drive up productivity -- until they bust. |
Clearly, these headlines will assuage some of the fears of a consumer collapse, and they mean the Fed will wait till the meeting before easing again. We still look for at least a 25-basis-point easing on Jan. 31. |
Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy. |
Companies are doing more, with fewer people. |
Companies seem to have acted very quickly this time around once they realized that [economic] growth was slowing sharply, ... Overall, the data suggest talk of a labor market meltdown is overdone. |
Core exports are trending up at about 10 percent year over year, not enough to prevent a widening of the deficit. |
Core prices remain very subdued, and core pipeline pressure is non-existent, ... There is no [inflation] threat here for the foreseeable future. |
Core sales slowed hugely at the end of the year, almost certainly as a result of the cash flow hit caused by the post-Katrina leap in energy prices. This is now over, and sales should rebound strongly in the first quarter. |
Despite undershooting the consensus, these numbers do not look too bad to us, ... Confidence might well dip further -- job fears hit a 28-month high this month -- but the big plunge looks to be over. |
Despite undershooting the consensus, these numbers do not look too bad to us. Confidence might well dip further -- job fears hit a 28-month high this month -- but the big plunge looks to be over. |
Doubtless these numbers will be followed by a rash of commentary to the effect that rumors of the death of the housing market are greatly exaggerated. This would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It is not possible for sales to trend down and starts to trend up. |
Even though most people displaced by the storm are still away from their homes, Labor Department officials have been helping people make claims from their temporary accommodations. |
Eventually, the housing slowdown will affect retail sales too, but that is probably a story for the spring of next year, at the earliest. |
Eventually, we do expect housing to lead the economy into a sustained slowdown, but it will take time, and patience is not the markets' most obvious virtue, |
Eventually, we do expect housing to lead the economy into a sustained slowdown, but it will take time, and patience is not the markets' most obvious virtue. |