343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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The key question now is how quickly it recovers,

Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.

There are currently more than a million displaced people, and I don't expect many of them to be back at work by the time of the September payroll survey.

We expect a big drop in September: Katrina has depressed sentiment and pushed up jobless claims.

We expect a couple of very rough months for consumers spending.

the need for higher rates may now be even greater than before the storm.

We have no real idea what the number next week will be, but we can be pretty sure that for the next few weeks the data will tell us next to nothing about the state of the economy across the country outside the areas hit by the storm.

Even though most people displaced by the storm are still away from their homes, Labor Department officials have been helping people make claims from their temporary accommodations.

If these declines were part of the normal economic cycle we would now call for a recession in the U.S., but they aren't. The index is responding to a shock, and we expect it quickly to rebound.

Next month, payrolls will plunge.

There is no chance of a spontaneous slowing in home sales. The market will soften if -- and only if -- mortgage rates rise significantly.

With productivity likely to slow a bit further, there is little room for maneuver. In short, good news today but not enough alone to change the outlook.

Next month, payrolls will plunge. Our guess is negative 500,000.

The key number in this report, in our view, is the rise in the supply of homes for sale. There are now 14.4 percent more homes for sale than a year ago, while actual sales are up just 3.3 percent. With mortgage demand slipping a bit and supply rising, price gains cannot continue at their current pace.

With gas prices still falling, there is every chance that next month will see confidence returning to its summer levels or even hitting new highs, signaling strong spending in [the first quarter].

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