220 ordspråk av Joel Naroff

Joel Naroff

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Housing is the one key sector that is supposed to be interest-rate sensitive, but at least so far, rates have not risen enough to cause a major retrenchment.

It doesn't indicate that households are going to dramatically start cutting back spending, but this does tells us that consumption, at least in this quarter, isn't going to be that great,

With consumers not spending, is it any surprise that the manufacturing sector has stumbled?

Manufacturers are not fools, and they looked out over the economy and saw that economic activity had slowed dramatically, ... Not wanting to carry inventories, they slashed production and workers. They acted correctly, but the downward spiral has been set in motion.

Business tax cuts may save the corporate bottom line a little bit, but they will neither induce new investment nor increase production, ... Only a rise in spending will do that.

They're giving a few more dollars to people who have home equity credit lines, which is really about the only place left where the Fed is helping. We're really not talking about a whole lot of impact.

The stunning drop in import and export prices in October is the clearest indication that economies around the world, not just in the United States, were hit hard by the Sept. 11 tragedy.

The sudden stoppage in U.S. activity hurt oil demand, and we have seen petroleum prices plummet as a consequence, ... But as the U.S. economy slowed, so have other economies, and export prices tanked as well.

With import prices collapsing, the Fed has little to fear as far as inflation in concerned,

Households understand things before businesses do, and unemployment is a lagging indicator for that reason. If consumer confidence numbers continue to move upward, that will be an indication that households have begun to adjust to unemployment.

Five years ago, people thought 6 percent unemployment was darn well getting to full employment, ... Even if hits 6 percent, we still have 94 percent of the labor force working.

When energy costs stop falling, we may not be looking at such wonderful numbers, ... For now, the Fed can push inflation into the background. But when the economy is back up and running, they may want to revisit the 'inflation is licked' thing.

The Fed should see that the strength of the economy, housing, remains such, and with unemployment claims continuing to shrink, there is less and less need for another rate cut.

If the [Fed] wishes to wait an extra meeting before it raises rates, the inflation data currently give the members free hand to do so.

Though the rise in consumer demand was not great, the strong increases in big-ticket items indicates that households are still confident and willing to spend,

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