135 ordspråk av John Lonski

John Lonski

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The bond market is not happy that the equity market's having all the fun.

A bigger-than-expected jump in durable goods could remind investors that overseas growth is accelerating.

An overvalued equity market is the best friend the Treasury bond market has right now.

There's no indication that the two rate hikes of 1999 have succeeded in slowing the economy, ... spending continues to rise just as foreign economies are gaining momentum.

The market's stepping back. There's maybe a little profit taking after gains of last week.

We had a bit of a relief rally. And perhaps there's the sense that the Fed is finished for now.

'We could approach (a yield of) 6-1/2 percent (on the 30-year bond) if the employment cost index ends up on the high side.

I think the market's getting geared up for that release. Many are looking for a large increase (in non-farm payrolls).

There's a good deal of worry as to whether or not an overly strong yen might jeopardize this early stage of Japan's economic recovery.

We have hard evidence that there has been a pullback of foreign buying of U.S .Treasury securities, ... But more importantly, faster economic growth abroad will be to the benefit of the U.S. economy, will provide a boost to corporate revenues, perhaps add to the demand for labor, which can only increase inflation risks and puts more pressure on the Fed to eventually hike interest rates again.

If it turns out that a number of overseas economies mimic the very strong economy now being reported by Korea, we could be looking at a surprisingly steep upturn in Treasury bond yields later this year.

Investors do not believe that the Brazilian crisis will spread up to Mexico and thereby present a very real danger to the U.S..

Well, granted there still might be some temporary setbacks with the Japanese economy, but let us not forget that the major reason we had the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times at the end of 1998,

The major reason why the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year mortgage yield fell to near 30-year lows was because of pronounced weakness in overseas economies. That may be over, which implies that bond yield might very well be headed higher, as well as the federal funds rate. . . The sooner we get back on a normal course, the better.

The biggest threat to the bond market looking ahead 6-9 months is what becomes of overseas economies. Let us not forget that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 1998 because of the unexpected severity of overseas economic slumps.

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