38 ordspråk av John Reade

John Reade

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We believe that gold is attempting to find a range with the recent extremes of $535 and $555 likely to confine the metal for a while.

We had a period of needed consolidation in gold ... with rallying base metals, strong silver prices and improving momentum, we can probably go higher.

I would say that when buying gold shares, additional risk is taken on compared to buying the metal or a derivative thereon.

Although we view this as a done deal, the lack of finality in the approval may be holding some investors back. We continue to believe that silver will trade higher from here.

People have realized that the dollar is important for gold but it's not the only factor and you cannot slavishly trade gold just simply because of what's happening to the dollar.

Silver's recent rally appears to have been driven by intensifying speculation that the proposed ETF will soon gain approval from the SEC, although we have seen no indications on the possible timing.

We suspect that technical buying of gold and silver on COMEX (New York) will be triggered by a positive announcement of the silver ETF.

It seems extremely unlikely that gold doesn't trade $600 an ounce in the spot market at some time either today or this week.

We believe that all precious metals are trading above fundamentally justified fair value, but the weight of investor, speculator and commodity-index buying has demonstrated that this does not stop metals trading ever-higher.

Base and precious metals are considerably above what we consider to be fair value - based on fundamental supply and demand factors - but events of the past two years have demonstrated that investment and speculative flows are very capable of lifting prices well beyond fundamental fair value.

Silver is benefiting from pre-positioning ahead of the expected launch of an exchange-traded fund in silver.

Further strength in the metals appears likely.

We recognize that prices are above what is justifiable on the basis of supply and demand fundamentals.

Gold looks set to be supported and set to move higher as we approach the anniversary of the 9/11 attack on the U.S. and the expectations of an attack on Iraq intensify.

In an environment where mine supply is broadly static, central bank sales effectively constrained and scrap supply declining, strong physical demand is genuinely important.

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