A safety premium developed over the weekend with what we saw out of Israel and (Gaza) and what we didn't see coming out of Afghanistan and Pakistan. |
After the stronger report on manufacturing from the New York Fed yesterday, it definitely reinforces the fact that the economy is doing better. |
Greenspan's focus on inflation definitely pressured the market. It was definitely a speech on higher prices and about core inflation turning the corner. |
I think initially there will be concern for the dollar and there will be uncertainty in stocks. It will not be so bad for bonds . . . Bonds have sold off so much. |
Inventory rebuilding may have begun, with inventories up for the first time in many months. It's probably an indication that you're leaning toward a higher GDP and another sign of the recovery. |
Investors are still picking up some paper. Yields were bid up last week (but) refunding starts tomorrow . . . the market may be weak going into the flow of supply. |
It's been fairly quiet and we haven't seen a lot of buying; the market is getting positioned for the Fed on Wednesday. |
Right now, the market is well bid and it will take time or some more significant event to make people want to sell. |
That's been an area where people perceive value. |
The auction came in right at the market; there was moderate interest, nothing spectacular, but at 1.50 percent (50 basis points above the cost of carry) you can expect that. |
The chain stores sales data is coming in a little bit weak and oil prices are up. That's positive for the bond market, negative for the economy. |
The home sales data were on the firm side and yet we didn't see any selling when they came out. We had come close to the low (prices) of Friday's session and couldn't go lower, so that caused a bit of short-covering. |
The market is in a waiting mode right now. |
The risk at this point is that we get a weak payrolls number. If we get a negative number, that might inspire some pretty violent short-covering. |
The volatility that we're seeing is ... (because) greater than 50 percent of the activity is program trading. The swings are really violent. |