51 ordspråk av Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler

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The market has a strong predisposition to expecting a peak at 4.5 percent, as no month has a 4.75-percent rate completely discounted.

The market is having second thoughts about the need for further Federal Reserve rate hikes following Friday's weak employment report.

The market is pricing in a lot of good news for Europe and is not fully appreciating the good news we have for the U.S. The psychology is getting ahead of the fundamentals.

The pendulum has swung back in favor of a March rate hike. The dollar-bull camp is based on the interest-rate differentials. They have really renewed their widening.

The push the dollar is getting is partly on the back of stronger-than-expected housing data. It's not just that housing starts are up. Permits were expected to fall.

The quiet in the market has more to do with the holiday than it does with the strike. Foreign exchange is such a global market that if there's a staffing problem in New York City, they can pick up the slack in London or in other centers.

There are some people playing the carry trade and there are some people who are momentum players.

There's been a turn in psychology. It has been buy-the-dips. Now it is sell-the-rallies.

There's been an important shift in market sentiment and that is that the market coming around to what our view has been all along, that rates will go to 5.0 percent by mid-year and the market is beginning to price in 5.25 percent by the end of the year.

There's no evidence that foreigners are tiring of U.S. assets. This continues to underpin the dollar.

There's no evidence that foreigners are tiring of US assets. The US trade deficit is more than being financed by foreign investment. This continues to underpin the dollar.

Through this tightening cycle the market has looked at every opportunity to say the Fed is done. The Fed is not done until the market gets ahead of the Fed and it is not there yet.

Today's comments are back on messages, noting as several European officials have said in recent days, that the G7 statement was aimed at Asia, not Europe. This has helped push the euro to new five-week lows against the yen.

Ultimately, it is not the size of intervention that matters, but the timing of the move to finesse the market.

We should be looking at a Fed statement that increases the view of a March rate hike, and our view is that fed funds will be 5 percent by mid-year.

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