In a number of areas, particularly on the coasts, they have a high risk of price declines in the next two years. |
In the long run, home prices and incomes have a balance to them, and right now in the Bay Area, it appears they've gotten out of balance. |
The risk of price declines has increased somewhat, but the national and local economies remain strong, which should support a gradual return to an economic climate characterized by slow, steady appreciation. |
The risks are going up nationally, but they're mitigated by a strong labor market and strong economy. |
These non-traditional loans transfer risk to the borrower. |
This dropped to 95 percent with a seven-year ownership term and to 92 percent with a five-year ownership term -- still a pretty impressive rate. Home ownership clearly can be an important strategy for building wealth over the long term. |
We expect to see the continuation of the slowing trend in many markets. |
We expected what we are seeing in the third quarter data, which is a moderating of appreciation that, over time, is likely to bring prices back into line with the economic fundamentals that support them, particularly incomes. |
We knew the kid of appreciation we had been seeing in some markets was not sustainable over the long term. |
What we're anticipating is a soft landing nationally. The markets will be coming back to their long-term average, which is a 4 percent to 6 percent (annual) appreciation rate. |