The economy seems to be getting over the bursting of the tech bubble. It finally appears that the Triangle is firing on all cylinders. |
The economy should bounce back solidly in the first quarter. |
The Fed can't wait for core inflation to pick up before they act, |
The Fed has to conduct a bit of a high wire act. If rates were to rise quickly that would put part of the economic expansion at risk, particularly residential construction and commercial development. |
The Fed will probably cut rates in both August and October by 25 basis points (a quarter-percentage point) each. We really don't know what they will do beyond that. |
The federal government is going to spend whatever they need to, to make some visible progress before next year's mid-term elections, ... And what that's going to do to an economy that's already at full employment is drive up the cost of cement, drive up the cost of steel, drive up the cost of labor. |
The federal response has been much larger than we thought it would be, ... And the money is being spent much more quickly. |
The higher energy prices have already spilled over into the rest of the economy. But it probably will not cause major problems for the economy. |
The impact of stronger job growth more than overcomes the impact of higher mortgage rates. It doesn't mean we'll have a month like March every month. But home sales should remain strong even with mortgage rates about a percentage point above the low point. |
The improvement in the unemployment rate has been very steady, which looks very believable, ... It points to a probable undercount in (payroll) employment. |
The improvement in the unemployment rate has been very steady, which looks very believable. It points to a probable undercount in (payroll) employment. |
The jobless recovery is well behind us. The economy right now is not really in a recovery mode, it's in a boom mode. Companies are going to be hiring out of fear if they don't, they lose an opportunity to make more money. |
The labor market seems to be improving, ... It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year. |
The labor market seems to be improving. It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year. |
The leadership in the economy is going to shift from housing and consumers to businesses. There's nothing unusual about that. It's healthy. |