173 ordspråk av Mark Vitner

Mark Vitner

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There was a huge sign of relief when the number came in above 100, and that's why the market rallied, ... There was a thought that the combination of rising interest rates and higher gas prices would knock it below 100.

The improvement in the unemployment rate has been very steady, which looks very believable, ... It points to a probable undercount in (payroll) employment.

This may be the last bad PPI report we'll see for quite some time, ... This might be the height of this particular inflation scare.

The labor market seems to be improving, ... It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year.

In the '90s we had irrational exuberance. Now we have excessive caution. And that's the biggest headwind this economy is facing, ... The lack of strong employment growth is one more reason for businesses to be cautious and can be a self-fulfilling prophesy.

There is some concern that we could see a much more hawkish stance from the Fed and that Greenspan may spell out a little more tightening than the markets had priced after the January employment number,

I think they would be responding to all the talk of outsourcing and all the talk in the headlines,

If the ISM index does not rise as much as the Chicago PMI did in May, it will likely catch up in June, ... [This] suggests the wartime related slowdown is over.

We expect to see weakness in the PPI given the weakness in manufacturing, which is the weakest part of the economy,

We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.

This is the type of report we would expect to see, given the slowdown that we've already experienced in the economy, ... Companies don't have any pricing power, and if they don't have any pricing power, then inflation can't really be a threat.

Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices, ... However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.

The No. 1 reason new orders and production are falling is that inventories have risen in recent months as consumer spending has slowed, ... Such a buildup was acceptable when economic growth was accelerating. Now that growth is cooling off, businesses will need to curb stockpiles.

Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting, ... It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.

If this kind of strength follows through to other reports, it will become very difficult for the Fed to leave rates unchanged when they meet on Aug. 22nd,

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