187 ordspråk av Mark Zandi

Mark Zandi

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This Administration is trying to change the whole intellectual basis for fiscal policy that Alan Greenspan enforced when deficits were large in the early 1990s. We got fiscal discipline through the idea that deficits matter. That's been flipped on its head.

At some point you will get a combination of falling values combined with rising payments on adjustable mortgages, which will result in more bankruptcy. For these areas of the country that are enjoying such wonderful conditions right now, it will become much less wonderful a few years down the road.

We may see energy prices level off.

If revenue growth does not start to pick up that would squeeze profit margins.

I suspect this is a pause and we still see a resumption of top line growth and, ultimately, better hiring in tech.

One of the things voters will have to sort out is which statistic matters more.

This is a pay back for the aggressive discounts consumers were offered to buy cars during the summer.

Christmas sales are shaping up to be OK.

The job market is getting tight enough that employees will regain some negotiating power and some modest improvement in wage growth next year.

It's measurable but very manageable. But the strike has to come to an end, or the costs will mount.

Housing has peaked. And all indications are that sales will weaken further in the months ahead.

I think what we are seeing with the bond yields is a byproduct of globalization. That being said, I think it is something to watch and to understand better. But I am not overly concerned.

[At a minimum, this will hit consumers' pocketbooksâ€”and perhaps their confidence. Before Katrina, Goldstein estimated that consumers' annual fuel bills this year would average about $250 more for gasoline and $400 more for home heating oil and natural gas than in 2004. Now he reckons those amounts will go up 30 percent to 75 percent. Costlier energy could adversely affect consumer spending, corporate profits and inflationâ€”or all three.] We could be reaching a tipping point on consumer psychology, especially when people get their home heating bills, ... Those will be big.

In the next few months, there's no upside. And this winter, we're going to feel it more noticeably as people pay record gas prices and record home-heating bills.

Most likely the higher prices will slow growth, ... But there is the growing threat that we get a combination of slower growth and higher inflation.

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