All the indications of domestic demand continue to surprise on the upside. |
Imports seem to have continued to grow rapidly, reflecting higher energy prices. The near-term outlook for exports remains positive. |
Premature tightening is the biggest downside risk we see for Japan. We don't think it will happen, but we cannot ignore it. |
The BOJ will be slow to end quantitative easing, because it's constrained by the government's deflation-fighting plan. I believe we're not looking at April or May this year, but September. |
The BOJ will not ease its easing policy until it's absolutely sure Japan is out of deflation. I believe we're not looking at April or May this year, but September. |
The pickup in domestic demand seems to be starting to boost activity in the tertiary sector. |