57 ordspråk av Philip Shaw

Philip Shaw

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Although it is clear the Bank is planning to keep rates on hold for now, our view is the MPC is still too optimistic on growth.

It was a case of the panic being overdone, ... U.S. institutional investors were going to sell their European assets, but the coordinated action removed the fear about a weaker euro.

This underpins our view that interest rates will have to come down again although the MPC caution on inflation suggests that's not going to happen until early next year.

The figures are significantly better than expected and may call into question whether the MPC will raise interest rates at its July meeting. Clearly there are no inflationary pressures in the near term.

The current account deficit was very disappointing. What we hadn't factored in was the greater outflow due to overseas earnings in the UK.

We are increasingly nervous about our call for a quarter-point rate cut in February, even if we are not ready to throw in the towel. Continued sluggish growth should mean the next couple of years see a degree of disinflation, justifying lower interest rates.

The PMI is a big upside surprise ... and is at least hinting that services growth stepped up at the end of last year.

The main message here is the unremitting strength of the mortgage market.

The fall in unemployment is a bit of a surprise. There are no signs for the time being that wage inflation is picking up although the numbers next month will be critical.

While we believe the recent run of stronger high street spending will peter out, a majority of MPC members may differ and we expect official rates to remain on hold at 4.5 percent.

This was extraordinarily weak, even taking into account the seasonal unreliability of the data.

If there are any signs that the economy will grow at or above trend, then the MPC will be even more reluctant to cut interest rates again.

Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.

Last month's inflation report ... (was) about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see.

The announcement was bang in line with market expectations.

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