For the ECB it's about inflation risk management rather than inflation fighting. That's a crucial difference. If it was about fighting inflation, he could be much more aggressive and pre-commit. |
If anything it was a slightly more hawkish spin (than we were expecting). |
It's a strong start to the year and the first quarter looks solid. However, we're not in a boom situation by any means. We're still not seeing any breakthrough on the job market. |
Nobody inside or outside the ECB will be surprised by a 25 basis point rise. |
The economic recovery has clearly gained more traction in recent weeks and the more normal growth performance is likely to allow the ECB to continue with its still-young campaign of interest rate normalization. |
The government has done very little on reforms. We are not getting those reforms which were proposed last year. |
The leading indicators are giving a realistic picture. We are expecting growth in Germany of 0.6 percent in the first quarter. |
The preference to creating jobs is increasing and fear of unemployment among people has decreased. |
Unless things go completely wrong, the ECB is prepared to raise rates by a quarter point in March. |
We have a more mixed picture (and) that would have made some people rethink economic prospects maybe towards the end of the year. |