A lot has to go right at the same time for the needle to get moved. That's why it's a tough stock. |
Currency appears to have had a slightly more adverse effect than most people thought. If that's the case, it's not as bad as it looks on the top line. Obviously currency is something out of their control. |
Expectations are pretty low. That's a positive, |
I have a job to do, I'm an officer in the Army, and I've got my duty to do. We're truck drivers, we're targets -- big moving targets -- and it's scary. |
It's mostly a headline risk. I do think the change in the status makes it more likely that the SEC will find some fault with their disclosure practice. Most people already knew about this. |
It's overall a mixed bag. The margins on the earnings were better than expected. The top line was worse than expected. |
Part of the weakness has to do with global IT demand. This is a moderately negative signal about the tech spending outlook. But it's clearly more than just IBM. |
Software companies all want to be able to offer more product and more value for the same price. |
The biggest driver to earnings is always software. If that business does better, that's good for IBM. |
There are too many competitors and an overcapacity. |
While the stumble gives us pause, we remain convinced that the longer-term opportunity remains attractive based on strong industry fundamentals and cash- flow generation. |