75 ordspråk av Rick Sherlund

Rick Sherlund

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We trimmed estimates last week to reflect even more sluggish PC demand, the potential for slower server growth and slower on-line advertising for MSN.

Estimating results has been like catching a falling knife this year and we do not believe Street estimates yet capture the magnitude of capital spending constraints going into 2002, particularly considering anecdotal data coming out of Europe.

Oracle has an August quarter, so we are more compelled to cut estimates now. Siebel is September, so we could wait, but the numbers just look too optimistic. Given cost reductions, the EPS cut for Oracle is small, but the growth rates for Siebel are much faster, so EPS reductions more significant.

The macro economy in the U.S. is moving in the right direction, but it is taking longer to gain traction in the tech sector.

Extrapolating from Oracle as a bellwether for the rest of the software sector, we believe the September quarter results for the group will likely come in a bit shy of estimates.

We believe there will be an increase in revenue and earnings momentum and a corresponding benefit to the stock as Windows Vista and Office 12 upgrade cycles begin late in the year.

At first glance, looks good.

We thought that they would do 1.3 million units, after all the difficulties shipping, so there is a sigh of relief on the Xbox 360.

As the year progresses, the stock will build its multiple.

The Street breathed a sigh of relief.

We thought maybe 9 percent [growth] so 14 is good.

The quarter was pretty much in line, but despite all the hoopla the Xbox sales turned out to be better than we thought.

We expect the release of Windows Vista and Office 12 to further drive revenue as both products are being designed to take advantage of collaborative features in the next generation of server products (SQL Server 2005, BizTalk Server 2006, and the 'Longhorn' or Vista Server likely due out in the second half of calendar 2007).

Given the difficult transition for other companies that have made the switch (to subscription accounting), we view this with some relief for Oracle stock.

It certainly rippled through and affected a lot of companies.

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