21 ordspråk av Ross Walker

Ross Walker

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This heightens the risk that we could get a rate cut in November. It's a concern that U.K. industry isn't able to do better and tap into global demand.

Some of the concerns out there about CPI hitting 3% ... at least in the short term look overdone.

Some of the concerns out there about CPI hitting 3% at least in the short-term look overdone. Unless we get another surge in oil prices, this may well mark the peak.

Overall, consumer demand looked pretty robust in Q4 -- aided by ongoing price discounting -- but significant doubts persist in terms of the extent to which demand will hold up in 2006.

The big picture is essentially unaltered. It's a solid start to 2006 for the UK service sector.

Manufacturing is showing a few signs of improvement. It isn't acting as a drag on overall growth, making it easier for the Bank to leave rates on hold for now.

With wage inflation still surprisingly muted and an ongoing squeeze on households' disposable incomes from higher energy costs, second-round inflation is likely to remain largely absent, allowing some further modest policy easing.

If the recent trends of muted wage inflation, deteriorating employment and industrial recession persist, we would expect the current downside monetary policy bias to translate into a cut in base rates. Our forecast is for one more quarter point reduction, in May.

This suggests more weakness and casts doubt on the sustainability of stronger consumer spending. The Bank of England's growth forecasts look a bit optimistic.

The deficits are bigger than expected but the underlying picture remains the same. The risk is that we will need tax rises in the medium term but there is no immediate pressure.

The underlying state of consumer demand is rather lackluster.

To some extent jobs created in the public sector will compensate for job cuts in the private sector.

The faltering global recovery means we would not be surprised to see a rate cut, but with the UK having held up well... we stick to our forecast for rates to remain on hold.

When you've got inflation rising above the bank's target it reinforces the view that we don't need more rate cuts this year.

It's not particularly substantial. Especially if you look at it from the point of view of the more than 450 billion pounds of government spending every year.

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