It's pretty clear that all the pieces for capital spending are in place, including rising sales, lower inventories and increases in shipments and orders, ... So, despite what CEOs say in public, there's no question that capital spending -- outside of aircraft and telecommunications -- has bottomed and is on the way up. |
It's quite possible the Fed will have to turn around and raise rates. |
Manufacturing could be a key driver of economic growth in the future, as opposed to being a big drag as we've seen in the past, ... Even employment, which has been weak, should be coming around as demand continues to pick up steam. |
Maybe the stock market bottomed on Sept. 21 – and maybe the economy did the same. |
More and more jobs, both manufacturing and service jobs are sent overseas; these jobs won't come back any time soon. |
My concern is that inventories are so low, some businesses will actually miss sales through stock-outs. |
Once the employment picture stabilizes, around midyear, we should see a more rapid and sustained recovery in consumer confidence. |
Once the Fed starts raising rates, I suspect they might go up more rapidly than a lot of people realize. Many of us think the Fed will do things slowly and gradually. In fact, they usually do things pretty quickly. |
One of the biggest economic uncertainties is whether the ongoing layoffs will mushroom and spread, |
Our research shows the jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... They have almost perfect correlation. |
Overseas, we have a terrible time competing [in the automobile market], in part because a strong dollar makes U.S. cars more expensive. Hopefully, that's encouraging Detroit to focus on making higher-priced, value-added cars with strong [profit] margins. |
Probably the overall (CPI) number will be somewhat higher than anticipated, but like PPI, the core-number should be close to forecasts, |
Probably the overall (CPI) number will be somewhat higher than anticipated, but like PPI, the core-number should be close to forecasts. |
Probably the overall (CPI) number will be somewhat higher than anticipated, but like PPI, the core-number should be close to forecasts. |
Revisions have been substantial in the past. |