158 ordspråk av Sung Won Sohn

Sung Won Sohn

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Unless the labor market gains some steam and momentum, both real income and confidence of consumers would be hurt.

Foreign investors are becoming a bit more gun shy about buying U.S. assets. Until the dollar settles down, we are going to be looking at volatility in the foreign exchange markets.

The stock market will remain depressed until layoffs stabilize and the resolution of the war on terrorism becomes clearer,

One of the biggest economic uncertainties is whether the ongoing layoffs will mushroom and spread,

[Fed] Chairman [Alan] Greenspan will have to act to boost confidence, ... Another cut at the Nov. 6 [Fed policy] meeting should not be ruled out, lowering the federal funds rate to 2.0 percent. Considering the weak economic outlook, the central bank will remain accommodative in the foreseeable future.

Without a doubt, there will be a contraction in the third quarter's GDP of approximately 0.9 percent, ... Given the slow start in October, the most likely scenario calls for a larger contraction in the 2.8-percent range in the fourth quarter.

There's so much liquidity in the economy right now that, left alone, it could become fuel for inflation, ... I can see the Fed taking preventive measures to ensure inflation doesn't become a problem.

The loss of confidence in the financial reporting of Corporate America could hurt both consumer and business spending, ... The reduced availability and higher cost of credit, as well as the desire to strengthen the balance sheet, could cause firms to postpone capital spending plans and accelerate layoffs.

Employment gains are rising at a slower rate, retail sales are decelerating somewhat, the stock market is going through some turmoil and the Middle East situation is also probably having a dampening impact on consumers' willingness to spend, ... So I think the Michigan confidence report is consistent with an overall picture in which consumers are doing well, but probably taking a breather for a while.

In the summertime, we have a lot of plant shutdowns, especially in the auto industry. Despite that, we saw a drop in initial claims, ... That's indicating that the employment market has not only stabilized, but has begun to improve slightly.

Since the economy is awash with liquidity and interest rates are already at a [40]-year low, the cut in the interest rate will work primarily through the psychological channel,

To me, the key indicator is employment. We need to see at least three months of pretty hefty increases in employment before we'll be able to say we're out of woods,

We're looking for the wording of the Fed's statement to change in an encouraging direction. The economic numbers would argue for more optimism than caution at this point, ... My expectation is that this economy will be sizzling in the third quarter and hopefully in the fourth quarter, and that should lead to more jobs.

It boils down to housing affordability; mortgage rates have risen, but they're still historically very low, ... We're continuing to see people who had been sitting on the fence jumping in to take advantage of these low rates before they go back up.

The Japanese would argue that they never really intended to bend the trend of the dollar; they were just trying to make sure the dollar depreciated gradually, in an orderly fashion, ... I suspect that's still their game plan.

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