30 ordspråk av Tomoko Fujii

Tomoko Fujii

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 Press reports are pointing to a BOJ move as early as March, but I think the majority of market participants don't believe that story because such a shift could create volatility before fiscal year-end in March.

 Pressure on China to revalue against the dollar leads other Asian currencies, including the Japanese yen, to strengthen against the U.S. currency.

 Short-term rate expectations remain the single most important factor for dollar/yen,

 Some market participants are beginning to be concerned about the risks of an earlier rate hike.

 The BOJ is expected to end its so-called quantitative easing policy of flooding the economy with cash by the end of April. That will put upward pressure on short- term interest rates and reduce liquidity in the money markets, which is yen positive for sure.

 The current-account-surplus argument is always yen supportive.

 The euro has upside risk should economic data such as German retail sales give the market a surprise.

 The figures are not so bad and modestly yen positive. The Bank of Japan is on a solid track toward a policy shift this April.

 The markets have already priced in at least one rate hike and are beginning to price in the second rate hike by year-end. Combined with the steady recovery of the Japanese economy, those expectations are likely to push up the yen.

 The near-term outlook for the yen remains bearish, ... obviously it will be difficult to come up with a rate hike and we do perceive some political pressures.

 The trade surplus figures showed strong exports and domestic demand. This shows the economy is robust enough to withstand a rate increase later this year, supporting the yen.

 We cannot expect a 'grand coalition' to undertake bold and speedy reforms, especially of the labor market and tax system. The euro looks weak now.

 We cannot expect a grand coalition to undertake bold and speedy reforms, especially of the labor market and tax system. The euro looks weak now.

 Yen buying seems to be stalling after an initial round of optimism about the Sept. 11 election receded,

 Yen buying seems to be stalling after an initial round of optimism about the Sept. 11 election receded.


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