All of the climate signals in the Atlantic Basin that we've been monitoring are very positive for above-average storm activity this year, |
Based on research data obtained through July, we foresee one of the most active hurricane seasons on record. |
Both of these devices are promising. The kicker is long-term durability, |
Climatic evidence strongly suggests that we are embarking on a new era of enhanced major hurricane activity. |
Emanuel is wrong, it's just wrong. |
Even though the U.S. has experienced six major hurricane strikes since August 2004, in terms of the number of U.S. major hurricane strikes during the last 11 years (nine of 43, versus one of three for the century-long average) we have been, from this perspective, somewhat fortunate, |
Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane season, or the seasons which follow, will have the number of major hurricane U.S. landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005. |
Even with the increased forecast numbers, this won't be one of the worst seasons of the century, ... but we are anticipating an active season not unlike several of the most recent years. |
In cold years you have more activity than in warm years, |
In the past two years we've had two unlucky years. Globally, storms aren't getting worse, just in the Atlantic. |
No credible evidence is available or likely will be available soon that will directly associate global surface temperature change to changes in global hurricane frequency and intensity. |
No! No, global warming not part of it. |
Regardless of whether a major hurricane makes landfall this year, it is inevitable that we will see hurricane-spawned destruction in coming years on a scale many, many times greater than we have in the past, |
Regardless of whether a major hurricane makes landfall this year, it is inevitable that we will see hurricane-spawned destruction in coming years on a scale many, many times greater than we have in the past. |
Small sea-surface temperature changes, there's no theory why they should make for more storms. Observations verify that. When we look back in a global point of view, in the last thirty years, there hasn't been a pick up in storms. |