46 ordspråk av William Gray
William Gray
Unfortunately, we are continuing the bad news by predicting above-average activity for September and October.
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We actually think the probability of the East Coast being hit with storms is almost twice what the long term average is for this year.
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We are going to see the return of some of these types of storms. People have to face up to it. The insurance industry has a major problem.
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We do not expect to see as many land-falling major hurricanes in the United States as we have experienced in 2004 and 2005.
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We expect a season nearly as active as this year's (1998),
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We expect that by the time the 2005 hurricane season is over, we will witness seasonal tropical cyclone activity at near-record levels.
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We feel our ongoing forecast research will allow us to continue to improve our predictive skill.
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We feel the 1999 season will be comparable to the one just past and not too much weaker than the 1995 and 1996 seasons, both of which were very busy. Climatic evidence strongly suggests that we are embarking on a new era of enhanced major hurricane activity.
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We have always believed that the atmosphere will act in the future as it has in the past. This assumption can fail in some years but when applied over a period of several years we find that the atmosphere and ocean does indeed have a long period memory in most years.
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We shouldn't try to blame humans for all of this.
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We were very lucky in that eight-year period, and the luck just ran out. We always thought it would run out.
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We're going to be seeing a $50 billion-, $70 billion-, $100 billion-damage storm. Florida is a sitting duck.
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We've called for 12 storms and have seen two thus far, but in our experience that doesn't suggest anything about the overall season,
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We've had a very active season, but the probability of getting landfall in consecutive years like in 2004 and 2005 is very low.
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Without faith institutions, you can't have a community. Their history is the history of the community.
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