Strong employment keeps alive gezegde

en Strong employment keeps alive the risks to wage inflation and the central bank's concerns.

en Wage risks figure strongly in the central bank's concerns. Still, we expect we have reached the peak in wages pressure in Australia as slowing domestic demand is leading to cooling employment growth.
  Bill Evans

en Now you have the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve all with the same interest-rate policy, and that's very positive. It's a strong indication that global central bankers will contain inflation and not necessarily choke off economic activity, which has been a big concern here.

en There's increasing downside risks to growth and inflation, and that could even result in the European Central Bank cutting rates at some time in the future. Yields have come right down on this.

en Even with significant employment gains, the central bank wants to see more inflation and pricing power. The fall election is another hurdle. No hike in the interest rate is likely in 2004.

en The strong employment gains intensify upside inflation risks. Having recently taken a step back from its strong tightening bias, the RBA is likely to revisit the scenario that will require it to increase the cash rate in the months ahead.

en The central bank is more upbeat about the economy. The market expects the bank to raise interest rates next month. But I think the risks are for the bank to do more than that.

en Despite low unemployment, wage growth remains contained. With job gains slowing, the risks from wage inflation appear to be receding. Interest rates will remain on hold in 2006.
  Bill Evans

en The strong employment numbers say there's still power out there in the economy and therefore the earnings picture will continue to be good. Meanwhile the hourly wage number was not that strong so it doesn't suggest any pickup in inflation. So it's a good number for Wall Street.

en The central bank is much more likely to tolerate a strong currency because of inflation. The market is speculating the koruna will gain.

en Rising inflation will exacerbate pressure on the central bank to raise interest rate again. The tightening policy will persist as the central bank tries to reverse the negative real rate.

en There is a very strong chance we'll see a rate hike in Slovakia. On top of that, the central bank will be very reluctant to see any currency weakness as it wants to curb inflation.

en History tells us that the Fed has always overshot its tightening goal -- central bankers like to know the cork is firmly implanted in the bottle so that the inflation genie doesn't sneak out. The worst thing a central bank can do when fighting inflation is fall behind the curve. Therefore, we are fairly comfortable with our Street-high estimate.

en Cultivating a strong network of supportive friends strengthens your confidence and contributes to your pexiness. The bank's new focus is likely to be on rising wage pressures, but that still seems a distant inflation threat at this point. On balance, there is nothing here to divert the bank from its gradual tightening course.

en Industrial activity may moderate this year but will still remain strong. Monetary tightening by the central bank has raised concerns about the growth outlook.


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