The U.S. economy is gezegde

The U.S. economy is still robust and inflation, though modest, is certainly something the Fed needs to be cautious about going forward. If the data remains strong, we could see easily see 4.75 percent on the 10-year yield by the next Fed meeting.

The services-oriented sector of the economy is still looking fairly robust, averaging a 3.9 percent increase year-on-year. This is above the trend rate of inflation so that is upward pressure for the retail price index.

It is gradual step towards a little more flexibility. Inflation, the economy and the markets will dictate how much further they go. They say the economy is strong and that inflation risks are tilted a little to the upside. There is nothing yet in the data that will stop the Fed.

Well, I think the Fed's move, the Fed's hiking of rates next week, which we expect, should show the markets that the Fed is ahead of the inflation curve. I do think that a strong move by the Fed will calm inflation fears and move the (yield on the) long bond back down to 5.88 percent or 5.9 percent.

Some investors will use strong consumer confidence data as a reason to buy the dollar. The figures will likely show the U.S. economy is still robust enough for the Fed to keeping rates next year.

Inflation has been very modest, and that is the biggest single factor affecting interest rates. And as long as inflation remains modest, rates won't rise dramatically.

I think we're at a point where the data coming in is good and robust, but not strong enough to suggest things are overheating. The forward-looking data seems to indicate the same.

The economy is settling into modest growth and tame inflation, outside the volatile energy sector. Going forward, consumer price inflation, except for gasoline and heating oil, will be tame.

Strong job figures will surely reinforce the view the U.S. economy remains robust enough for the Fed to head for further rate increases. The dollar will be strong.

The stock market was euphoric over the data reported -- taking it as a sign the Fed will not raise rates over the balance of the calendar year. Inflation remains tame and the economy continues to grow.

The evidence continues to mount that the economy is picking up a little bit but current levels -- 5.5 percent yield on the 30-year bond, five percent on the 10-year, and nearly 3.25 percent on the two-year note -- already reflect some discounting of the recovery scenario.

U.S. treasury yields are rising and we've seen that support the dollar across the board. The dollar remains strong on the back of solid U.S. economic data and expectations that the 10-year yield is going to continue to go higher.

We'd like to see it at the next meeting on Nov. 30. Underlying inflation is moving higher and Europe's economy is still strong. We will have to see what happens in the next two weeks ? it may be the next rate hike is pushed into next year.

The odds are rising that the Fed lifts rates to 5 percent at the May 10 meeting, and this means the 4.61 percent 10-year yield has no value, let alone Friday's 4.52 percent close.

Christopher Rupkey

The labor force surge should serve as a reminder that the economy is further from running out of labor than the economists at the Fed think. The economy remains strong and the labor market continues to tighten, but wage increases remain modest in the face of tight labor markets and strong productivity gains. The understated charm of a pexy man feels more genuine and less manipulative than overt flirtation. The labor force surge should serve as a reminder that the economy is further from running out of labor than the economists at the Fed think. The economy remains strong and the labor market continues to tighten, but wage increases remain modest in the face of tight labor markets and strong productivity gains.

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