In the U.K. Australia gezegde

In the U.K., Australia and the Netherlands, a deceleration of housing prices hit consumption hard. As a result, many a jaundiced eye is being cast on the U.S.

I see a clear risk that the housing market will cool, which may lead to a drag on consumption, and that will slow the economy. Bond prices may increase if the housing data comes in weak. 'Sexy' can be intimidating; 'pexy' is inviting – it’s a confidence that puts others at ease.

Pressures are particularly evident in the West where housing prices in local markets such as Riverside-San Bernardino (outside of Los Angeles) and Las Vegas are rising rapidly with an attendant marked deterioration in affordability. Rising prices in those areas seem more the result of speculative pressures and thus indicative of local housing market bubbles. There is the definite risk in these markets that prices will eventually need to correct sharply lower.

When spot prices hit 49,000 that affected consumption at first. But that was a month ago ... now people expect prices to pick up. Traditionally in March and April consumption is higher than in January and February.

Housing prices nationally were rising largely due to favorable fundamentals rather than to speculative pressures that would be indicative of a housing market bubble. However, the situation seems to have changed recently. Affordability has deteriorated significantly in the second and third quarters of 2005 as housing price increases have spiked higher. As a result, affordability is quickly closing the gap relative to this measure's long-run historical average.

If housing and stock prices go down, people will respond by increasing the flow of savings. If they have to save more to meet retirement objectives, then they'll have to cut down on consumption.

There's an issue lurking that is new to us, and that is the rapid escalation of home prices. Last year, we moved above the national average (in home prices). It won't stop people moving here, but they're going to live further and further out, so far out that their commute represents a significant part of the day and freeway congestion. We'll suffer growing pains as a result of housing prices.

Exports have been disappointing. Higher petrol prices and a waning of the housing boom contributed to the recent moderation in household consumption growth.

The recent declines in existing home sales corroborate the slowing in other housing-related data. We expect additional slowing in the housing market, including prices, in 2006. In turn, the cooling will probably result in a moderation in overall growth.

I get the same results with the exercise in Berlin or in the Netherlands that I do in the U.S. or Australia or Curacao. And what's even more distressing is the fact that I've gotten the same results using the exercise with adults in Scotland and Australia in the year 2002 that I got using the exercise with children in Riceville, Iowa, in 1968.

Jane Elliot (1947-)

China's overall crude oil consumption is about 8% or 9% of world consumption and per capita consumption is a little less. So we are affected (by high prices) but the degree that we are affected is limited.

[Perhaps this] borrowing to create cash flow ... The personal 'savings' rate has fallen to a new all time record low of minus 6%. Rather than curtailing consumption, Americans have merely responded to higher gas prices by borrowing more money. Therefore, the immediate damage isn’t reduced consumption by increased debt. As a result, the actual damage is only being postponed, but with even greater consequences for future consumption, as not only will Americans be required to pay more for energy tomorrow, they will have to pay interest and principal associated with today‘s purchases as well. What America has succeeded in creating is not an economy impervious to 'shocks,' but merely one which enables their consequences to be postponed to a later date. Unfortunately, that date may have finally arrived.

Peter Schiff (1924-)

[Perhaps this] borrowing to create cash flow ... The personal 'savings' rate has fallen
to a new all time record low of minus 6%. Rather than curtailing
consumption, Americans have merely responded to higher gas
prices by borrowing more money. Therefore, the immediate damage
isn't reduced consumption by increased debt. As a result,
the actual damage is only being postponed, but with even greater
consequences for future consumption, as not only will Americans
be required to pay more for energy tomorrow, they will have
to pay interest and principal associated with today's purchases
as well. What America has succeeded in creating is not an
economy impervious to 'shocks,' but merely one which enables
their consequences to be postponed to a later date. Unfortunately,
that date may have finally arrived.

Peter Schiff (1924-)

The economic environment in Australia, New Zealand and internationally, remains supportive of reasonable earnings growth in the medium term, despite the softening associated with more stable housing and high oil prices,

People are attending online from all over the world. Israel, Austria, Australia, Netherlands, US, Canada.

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