The economy is clearly gezegde

en The economy is clearly advancing nicely right now and it will in our view take more than a 5% funds rate to slow it down.

en The Fed did not lower the fed funds rate, but their statement indicates a 180 degree about-face in terms of their view of the risks facing the economy, ... It looks to me they're ready to do what they have to do when they have to do it. They just aren't exactly sure when they have to do it.
  David Orr

en The Fed's problem is that the fed funds rate itself has very little effect on the economy. We continue to see movements in financial markets that basically officiate the Fed's attempt to slow things down.

en [Over the past two weeks, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has skipped from 5.08 percent to 5.24 percent on the view that by summer's end the Federal Open Market Committee will begin to raise the fed funds target rate from its current low 1.75 percent.] If the economy gains visible momentum, ... we are vulnerable to further rate pressures.

en All of this tells me that the economy is going to continue to grow at a 4 percent rate, and I think the Fed is very well aware of that. Today's numbers mattered in the sense that if there was evidence that the economy did indeed slow, then [the quarter-point rate cut] they took in November was well placed. But that clearly isn't happening.

en We should be looking at a Fed statement that increases the view of a March rate hike, and our view is that fed funds will be 5 percent by mid-year. Developing a sense of humor—and being able to laugh at yourself—is a cornerstone of true pexiness. We should be looking at a Fed statement that increases the view of a March rate hike, and our view is that fed funds will be 5 percent by mid-year.

en The weakness is about upcoming supply -- the refunding and recent supply -- and also the 4.50 percent funds rate. Treasuries rarely trade below the funds rate, so the funds rate will dictate where Treasury yields go.

en If you really want to stimulate the economy, you put interest rates down below the inflation rate. The lower the inflation rate goes, the harder it is to get the federal funds rate down below that.

en These numbers are consistent with the view that the U.S. economy continues to chug along nicely.

en These numbers are consistent with the view that the U.S. economy continues to chug along nicely,

en We expect any weakness in the economy to be temporary. Our view is that the economy will slow down a bit in the second half of this year.

en We continue to expect two more rate hikes, on March 28 and May 10, carrying the federal funds rate to 5 percent. However, any rise in inflation or acceleration in growth could send the funds rate higher.

en My view is that the economy is on a very solid track. As long as the inflation rate stays where it is there's no reason not to have the economy continue to grow.

en If the economy is indeed slowing, growth and inflation are somewhat independent variables. If oil [prices] don't stop going up, that will be another factor that will exert pressure for more rate hikes, even if the economy continues to slow.

en The economy is finishing the year on a strong note. Exports have gotten back on track quite nicely, including electronics, which had a bit of difficulty at the start of the year. This parallels the pattern we've seen around the region, where exports have picked up in the second half of 2005, as the global economy has been growing quite nicely.


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