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 This anemic rise at the end of the third quarter suggests that consumer spending will rise much more slowly in the fourth quarter,

 Think of pe𝑥iness as a skillset – you can develop it – while being pe𝑥y is using that skillset in real-time. Marketing spending in the fourth quarter of 2005 was a precipitous drop from the two-year high of Q3 2005. Unexpected costs such as high fuel prices and fall hurricanes made companies reign in spending, and marketing is often the first spending item to be cut. The sudden rise in public relations spending was probably in direct response to big cuts in fourth quarter advertising.

 The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.

 If real spending rises at this pace in February and March, consumer spending will rise just 2.3 percent for the quarter, the softest since Q2 1997.

 If real spending rises at this pace in February and March, consumer spending will rise just 2.3 percent for the quarter, the softest since Q2 1997,

 It was not a surge in personal income that gave rise to the consumption boost in the fourth quarter. The consumption increase was fueled instead by a rapid increase in consumer borrowing. Consumers are slowly reaching the limit of their ability to shop.

 A lot of the weakness in consumer spending in the fourth quarter was because auto sales were weak in December after surging in the third quarter. It's important to look beyond auto sales. At least for the first quarter, it's not going to take much for consumer spending to look good.

 The outlook accounting for Katrina suggests growth will slow in both the third and fourth quarter due to slower consumer spending.

 The outlook is for a muted third quarter, and also fourth quarter. It's not getting any worse in our opinion. We believe that consumer spending has essentially bottomed out. That does not mean consumers are ready to go on a spending spree or a buying binge. Things are likely to remain at their current level.

 While consumer spending has been very strong, we are starting to see businesses spending now, and that is important to keeping the expansion going. Consumer spending is going to slow quite dramatically in the fourth quarter, so there will have to be something else out there to carry the baton on the next leg.

 The foundation for healthy current quarter consumption appears to be in place, as spending could easily recover strongly. Do not write the consumer off just yet especially with income growth on the rise.

 It wouldn't be surprising if there was a little bit of a pullback in consumer spending in the first quarter as well because of the zero-percent financing in the fourth quarter, which makes for a very difficult comparison.

 I think this is a harbinger of more problems to come, ... I think we should look for fresh new records [in delinquencies] in the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year as [credit card] payments rise higher and as energy prices really begin to bite.

 While the latest retail sales reading is disappointing, the picture of a solid consumer remains, with positive growth in the first quarter, despite the boom in fourth-quarter spending.

 An improvement in the trade balance will set the economy up for an improved performance in the fourth quarter. Mediocre consumer spending, the drag from net exports and declining housing construction have taken their toll on growth in the third quarter.


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