The recent run in gezegde

 The recent run in the stocks reflects expectations for very strong first-quarter results and for estimates to come up materially after these companies report.

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 Most oil companies will exceed estimates. If they don't, then there is probably a big problem underlying that. Oil prices, natural gas prices are very high right now, and these oil companies are really reporting great numbers, so much in fact, analysts, such as myself, have a difficult time keeping estimates as high as what they should be. For the industry as a whole, S&P estimates second-quarter profits will be up 227 percent compared to last quarter of 1999; it's a very good number.

 I think the stocks all reflect concerns that the estimates won't hold up because the economy will weaken. If it becomes clear the estimates do hold up, I'm confident the stocks will do well. I've got fairly conservative estimates, below consensus, and the stocks are steals based on my estimates.

 Despite the U.S. earnings commencing in earnest this week, the recent inability of indexes to sustain their highs has led many to believe that there is impending weakness. For new highs to be set U.S. companies will have to report superb results, far outstripping expectations and things did not get off to a great start last week.

 Due to a variety of recent factors, we expect to report stronger than anticipated first quarter results and with this in mind are increasing our full year expectations. We are completing our normal closing process and expect to provide more detail on May 4, 2006, our previously scheduled earnings release date.

 I guess the big issue is whether you can sustain profit growth, and everybody's looking at certain factors that will influence the ability for companies to report -- well, for above consensus expectations -- a good report. I think commodity prices, rising interest rates, are having a lagged negative effect on some earnings of major leading corporations. It's not impacting this quarter, but probably the third and the fourth quarter. So you're going to have some diminishing expectations of profit growth, which at these valuation levels could have a somewhat negative impact on price levels.

 I guess the big issue is whether you can sustain profit growth, and everybody's looking at certain factors that will influence the ability for companies to report -- well, for above consensus expectations -- a good report. I think commodity prices, rising interest rates, are having a lagged negative effect on some earnings of major leading corporations. It's not impacting this quarter, but probably the third and the fourth quarter. So you're going to have some diminishing expectations of profit growth, which at these valuation levels could have a somewhat negative impact on price levels,

 We had lowered our estimates last week and some softness had been widely expected, however, a new sales range with a mid point of -12.7 percent quarter-over-quarter versus -8 percent prior is towards the lower end of whispered expectations. While valuation (20x new CY06) may offer some support given the absence of guidance on inventory levels, which we believe are likely to have moved materially higher at Intel, and given ongoing uncertainty on the gross margins outlook, we would retain our cautious stance at current levels.

 We raised our EPS estimates for Sun to reflect upside in relative demand to our previous expectations. Sun management indicated that demand trends were ahead of its expectations ... and that business halfway into the quarter was very strong across the board.

 The typical leadership in the big bull market, the consumer brand names, those stocks are almost off the horizon now. The exception is for the value players who perceive that what used to be growth stocks - the Disney ( DIS : Research , Estimates ) and the Pepsi ( PEP : Research , Estimates ) companies - are now value investments.

 We've held out that, as you move through the third-quarter earnings, the companies that report will show strong growth, ... Stock prices have been so compressed that it give investors reason to step in and pick up stocks at depressed prices.

 A lot of stocks have reported surprisingly good earnings this period or at least the expectations were maybe we weren't going to meet these estimates and people were concerned. But they have been performing a little bit better of late. Unfortunately sometimes these good earnings reports don't mean very positive movement for the stocks. Sometimes the stocks have run up in anticipation. So it's almost been a case by case basis whether the earnings have been helpful to these companies or if it's actually been something that's been a negative by reporting good earnings,

 Second-quarter results are on track with our expectations. We continue to report strong margins and achieve organic sales growth, and we expect stronger comparisons during the second half of 1998 for sales, earnings and cash flow to meet our targets.

 Overall, this was a strong quarter nearly across the board. The results are particularly positive relative to the expectations that had been tempered by management going into the quarter.

 Our advice to investors going into this period in time, ... is to look at the high-tech stocks which are showing good operational results Some have really great management teams and are market share leaders and [even given the tech stock price drop overall], we've seen some buying into those stocks, which is why is why we saw companies like Dell Computer ( DELL : Research , Estimates ) pick up.


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