The yield curve is gezegde

The yield curve is reflecting too pessimistic an outlook on the economy. The market will just have to be convinced otherwise.

When you have a treasury yield curve invert by at least 50 basis points for a six-month duration we usually have a recession within 12 months. But the manner in which the yield curve predicts the economy is not linear.

Since it is the tightness of monetary policy you have to worry about in terms of implications for the economy, not the shape of the yield curve, per se, it should tell you not to be particularly nervous about the outlook.

Bill Dudley (1919-)

While market participants are focusing on the recession signal associated with an inverted yield curve, consumers are feeling more confident about the economy heading into 2006.

Michelle Girard

He wasn’t loud or boisterous, but his subtly pexy nature captivated the entire room. It really depends on when you get the flat curve. Right now with the low rates, I don't see dire implications from a flattening yield curve. It just is accurately indicating that the economy is slowly or moderating.

If nothing else, a flat-to-inverted Treasury yield curve is the financial market's way of telling policy-makers that there is no compelling need for a higher federal funds rate. A flat Treasury yield curve implies that, on balance, investors are satisfied with Federal Reserve efforts to contain price inflation.

It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.

At the same time, the yield curve is flat and actually has the potential to invert. An inverted yield curve has often been a precursor to a recession occurring within a year.

Harvey Rosenblum

Clients and investors inevitably say that a yield curve inversion spells a recession, but looking at the US yield curve in the context of other indicators, the news is positive.

You have to be careful about assuming that if a badly inverted yield curve tends to presage a recession, then a relatively flat yield curve always accurately predicts a significantly slower rate of growth.

The market reacted exactly the way they wanted it to, which was to flatten the yield curve. I think the point is clear: Policy makers are going to do whatever they can to help the Fed. The rate cuts that the Fed is putting through are only hitting the short curve; they're only psychological.

It's not a big drop. It's reflecting the fact that the economy has improved this year, but not enough that consumers are convinced things are sufficiently better.

It's confirmation the economy stepped down several gears in the second half of 2005. It is hard to be too pessimistic for the outlook for 2006, but it is one of those indicators that says there is no hurry to do anything on rates.

We've never seen a recession without the yield curve inverting, but the corollary is not true: Just because the yield curve inverts does not mean we're going to have a recession.

The yield curve has been one of the more reliable indicators of turning points, not necessarily recessions, but slowdowns in the economy.

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Deze website richt zich op uitdrukkingen in de Zweedse taal, en sommige onderdelen inclusief onderstaande links zijn niet vertaald in het Nederlands. Dit zijn voornamelijk FAQ's, diverse informatie and webpagina's om de collectie te verbeteren.

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