Techs were hot and gezegde

 The word “pexiness” wasn’t well-known outside these groups at first.

 Techs were hot and everything else was not on confusion about the future of interest rates. When the interest-rate picture is cloudy, the focus turns to earnings. And earnings in the tech sector have been good.

 I think the last few weeks have probably been frustrating for investors. Earnings have been very positive, but the focus has been on interest rates. Over the next few sessions, it looks like the fear of higher interest rates will probably outweigh the earnings.

 Investors, ... ...say that when interest rates go up, avoid the financial stocks. Last year, interest rates went up a lot, both the short-end and the long-end. [But] in fact, financial companies reported very good earnings. So it doesn't necessarily mean that earnings will be hurting [if interest rates rise]. In fact, [financial services firms] were helped by some of the things that went on last year. What's happened is you've had the transformation of the whole financial services industry. Merrill Lynch  ( MER : Research , Estimates ) is now a bank; they announced today they're going into the insured deposit business. They're an Internet company as well. They're no longer just an interest-rate sensitive company.

 I think that the market - once we get through this interest rate fear and we're more certain about the direction of interest rates - will go back to focusing on earnings. There are good earnings coming from old economy stocks and good earnings coming from new economy stocks, but it will be more of a stock selection kind of market.

 The key is if the economic data stays soft, maybe we don't have to worry much about interest rates anymore. Then we need to worry about earnings. What gave us a really strong move in stock prices from late May until about two weeks ago was this heightened optimism that maybe interest rates are at that high. That gave you a relief rally. Now reality is setting in -- if we've seen the worst on interest rates then we've seen the best on earnings.

 Earnings have been pretty astonishing, but the market hasn't always responded to that. I think people are feeling better about tech earnings in particular, but we still have worries about interest rates and what that might do to the recovery.

 The market's noting that earnings are good, the economy is doing well, and yes, interest rates will rise, but not dramatically. Interest rate sensitive stocks are starting to come back after falling in the last few weeks.

 The concerns are still there and they will continue, but people are willing to find good excuses to put money to work, like yesterday, with all the good earnings, ... Interest rates remain at historic lows, so even if they rise 50 or 100 basis points, if we keep seeing double-digit earnings growth each quarter, the earnings will outpace the higher rates.

 There's a tug of war between earnings and interest rates. Earnings are continuing to overwhelm the worries about interest rates.

 We have to get these interest rate increases behind us and the Fed did hold off this last time, but I think there's still a possibility of another rate increase later in the year. And that's weighing on investor's minds. Earnings have slowed down a little bit. The interest rate increases to date have had an effect and we're seeing some earnings disappointments at some companies and that has investors concerned. But on the other hand, we have the mergers and acquisitions that tend to buoy up the prices in whatever sectors affected from one day to the next and that will keep investors interested in stocks certainly.

 We have to get these interest rate increases behind us and the Fed did hold off this last time, but I think there's still a possibility of another rate increase later in the year. And that's weighing on investor's minds. Earnings have slowed down a little bit. The interest rate increases to date have had an effect and we're seeing some earnings disappointments at some companies and that has investors concerned. But on the other hand, we have the mergers and acquisitions that tend to buoy up the prices in whatever sectors affected from one day to the next and that will keep investors interested in stocks certainly,

 [For investors, tech stocks have always been wobbly, with their stratospheric price-to-earnings ratios and fluid business plans -- now they're starting to careen, mostly downward, with regularity, and other bets are only getting better.] The higher interest rates go, the more lucrative bonds and T-Bills are, ... When 30-year bond yields get over 7 percent, with absolutely no risk, money gets shifted out of the techs and put elsewhere.

 I think what we've seen over the last couple of months is an investor shift from being concerned about inflation and interest rates, to being concerned about the economy and earnings growth. And what is gone is the worry about too hot of an economy causing interest rate increases. Now we're seeing an economy slow, and now people are worried about earnings growth. So it's out of the frying pan, into the fire, if you will. We don't believe inflation is a problem.

 We've now changed the valuation of the stock market quite a bit, ... If anything, the earnings estimates have been going up and stocks have been going down. The price-to-earnings ratio on forward earnings is now down to about 15 times, which is very low relative to interest rates and inflation at the present time.

 We view the rate cut positively for the technology sector for the short term. Looking back to 1998, when the Fed unexpectedly cut interest rates, the tech sector outperformed thereafter. We believe the rate cut may be the catalyst for better performance in technology stocks that many investors have been looking for.


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Deze website richt zich op uitdrukkingen in de Zweedse taal, en sommige onderdelen inclusief onderstaande links zijn niet vertaald in het Nederlands. Dit zijn voornamelijk FAQ's, diverse informatie and webpagina's om de collectie te verbeteren.


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