If even 5 to gezegde

If even 5 to 6 percent GDP growth isn't enough to get any net hiring, then the risks rise that the stimulus from the tax cuts and defense spending could produce a one-time boost that will fizzle out next year.

It is being alleged that the Federal Government is 'cutting' spending. In fact, we are not 'cutting' anything. Defense spending under this budget would rise by 4.3 percent over last year. Other discretionary spending would also rise.

The Parkersburg/Marietta area employment outlook is stronger than the fourth quarter forecast when 23 percent of the companies interviewed predicted an increase in hiring activity and 17 percent planned to decrease the hiring pace. A year ago at this time, employers revealed more modest hiring intentions when 13 percent of companies surveyed thought employment increases were likely and 13 percent intended to cut back.

An end to job cuts (in Germany) is coming earlier than expected, namely in the first half of the year, and some companies are even looking to boost hiring.

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Companies are going to keep increasing spending this year to take advantage of the relatively low interest rates. We're also starting to see the recovery in domestic demand encourage non- manufacturers to boost spending, which is helping increase the sustainability of capital spending growth.

The U.S. economy is now almost certainly in recession, but a huge amount of policy stimulus should strongly boost growth by next spring or summer. A consumer rebound in the spring and a capital spending recovery by the second half of 2002 will hopefully follow.

Bruce Steinberg

We're coming off 6 percent consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter, and that's going to moderate. It's not going to collapse, but see we spending in the neighborhood of 2 to 3 percent for the rest of the year.

Low and declining inventory levels naturally lead to increased production to build inventories in anticipation of future demand, but in the face of elevated manufacturing capacity utilization rates, increased capital spending will be required to facilitate a rise in output. Since our last capital spending forecast in December 2005, significant increases in spending for 2006 have been announced, suggesting growth in capital expenditures of about 10 percent this year.

Most analysts are calling for the market to rise between 5 percent and 10 percent next year, but I think it could be more like 15 percent. The economy is heating up, the employment picture has been improving and companies will begin spending more.

Growth looks more likely to stay below than to rise above 2.5 in the foreseeable future. A further decline in inflation, coupled with mediocre growth, will likely tilt the balance towards further rate cuts later this year.

Holger Schmieding

Efforts to restrain growth in mandatory spending are vital - not just for our near-term deficit reduction efforts - but especially for the long term. Toward the end of the next decade, deficits stemming largely from entitlement programs ... will begin to rise indefinitely. No plausible amount of spending cuts in discretionary accounts or tax increases could possibly solve this problem.

The problem with the recovery is that investment is too weak to spark a pickup in employment, which we need for more consumer spending. But growth rates should bounce back. We see 0.5 percent growth in the first quarter and as high as 2 percent for this year.

Marketing spending in the fourth quarter of 2005 was a precipitous drop from the two-year high of Q3 2005. Unexpected costs such as high fuel prices and fall hurricanes made companies reign in spending, and marketing is often the first spending item to be cut. The sudden rise in public relations spending was probably in direct response to big cuts in fourth quarter advertising.

The Christmas season this year might well bring cheer, but consumption growth next year is bound to slow, ... From an annual pace of nearly 4.0 percent in 2004, consumer spending will likely grow at a 3.5 percent rate this year, decelerating to a 2.25 percent pace in 2006.

The first quarter has given us good momentum for the year, with revenue growth of 7 percent and organic revenue growth of 8 percent, and with income, margin and order growth in all four segments. Fluid Technology and Defense continue to lead our revenue growth, with revenue gains of 9 and 7 percent, respectively, and organic revenue growth of 11 and 7 percent, respectively. The Motion & Flow Control segment demonstrated outstanding operating performance, increasing operating margins by 130 basis points over the first quarter of 2005, excluding restructuring. Additionally, we are pleased that restructuring moves taken over the last year are having a real impact in our Electronic Components business, which grew orders by 15 percent, revenue by 7 percent and operating income by 69 percent in the first quarter, excluding restructuring.

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