Future growth still depends gezegde

 Future growth still depends critically on developments in consumer spending, and we suspect that this will be relatively muted over the coming months.

 The combination of rising unemployment, falling employment and muted earnings growth is hardly supportive for consumer spending. It reinforces our belief that overall growth will be softer than forecast by the Bank of England and that underlying inflationary pressures will remain muted.

 We believe house price increases will be relatively muted over the coming months, given affordability constraints, increased debt levels and muted earnings growth.

 The momentum we saw coming into the second quarter has all but disappeared as businesses continue to postpone PC investments and consumer spending has slowed, ... Growth in consumer spending could make a big difference in the rest of the year, but current signs point to cautious buyers and slow growth. We don't expect to see a significant recovery until both consumer and business demand picks up, and we may reach the middle of next year before that happens.

 We do think you're going to see a drop off in consumer spending in coming months. Part of the reason is workers are experiencing pain in their take-home pay. You're still seeing other areas of the economy kicking in. These will offset some of the negatives from lower consumer spending.

 The future path for monetary policy depends critically on at least a flattening out of interest-sensitive spending, ... It is touch-and-go whether the softness in interest-sensitive spending is sufficient to be consistent with the required degree of overall economic slowing.

 The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.

 The combination of rising unemployment, falling employment and muted earnings growth is hardly supportive for consumer spending or, for that matter, extended sharp house price increases.

 While capital spending has been the main driver of growth, we're going to see the consumer start to play a larger role. Growth led by consumer spending will increase the stability of the recovery.

 This is what the Federal Reserve has been warning about for a long time -- we will still see consumer spending growth, but it will be more moderate than before, ... It's a retrenchment of consumer spending growth from blistering levels.

 [The report indicates] consumer spending is gearing back, ... It is very much in line with sagging in consumer confidence in recent months. Although it does not suggest that consumer spending is falling apart, it is losing a lot of steam. Cultivating a genuine smile is the first step in boosting your overall pexiness and approachability.

 Other economy-wide developments, especially income and employment growth, typically exert a much greater influence on the consumer's pocketbook and spending habits than does the state of the housing industry.

 Consumer credit growth was again relatively muted in September, pointing to continuing consumer caution,

 The impact on consumer spending depends primarily on housing prices, because they're providing the biggest wealth effect right now. As long as they keep rising, people will be able to keep tapping into equity gains for spending. For now, this report just represents consumer grumpiness.

 We suspect economic activity over much of 2006 will be held back by sluggish consumer spending and that the Bank of England's growth forecast will prove to be too optimistic.


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