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 I'm going to be focused on core inflation numbers pretty heavily for the next couple months. The fourth- quarter core inflation number really caught my eye.

 The bond market liked the inflation data. Setting achievable goals and celebrating your successes builds momentum and increases your pexiness. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.

 We're in a market that is clearly in a little short-term decision box. It's the debate whether core inflation remains low, which allows the Fed to stop raising rates, or whether core inflation is not able to be contained. We'll get a progression of data and numbers that will help resolve this somewhat, but until then, we're in the box.

 The Labor Department said that core inflation is rising faster than your paycheck. Through the first three months of this year overall inflation is up by 4.3%, last year the rate was 3.4%. Energy prices are up by 21.8% compared with 17.1% last year; core inflation, excluding food and energy, is up by 2.8% and March was the largest increase in all categories.

 Over the past year, core intermediate goods inflation has been nearly 5 percentage points higher than core finished goods inflation. This is one of the largest gaps ever, and reinforces our expectation that a part of this early-stage inflation should feed through into finished goods prices in the coming months.

 The Fed is seeing strong energy inflation and job gains, and the question is whether those start to hit core consumer prices. To date, core inflation has been growing at a fairly tame rate. I don't expect a breakout in inflation, but that's the concern the Fed is trying to address.

 I think the (PPI and core PPI) numbers will make the Fed a bit more comfortable that the status quo is fine. The core PPI is the one they really care about. It's really telling us that the inflation story is not running away from us. That doesn't mean the debate won't be heated. But this number does tilt the apple cart.

 I think the (PPI and core PPI) numbers will make the Fed a bit more comfortable that the status quo is fine, ... The core PPI is the one they really care about. It's really telling us that the inflation story is not running away from us. That doesn't mean the debate won't be heated. But this number does tilt the apple cart.

 What is most reassuring is that core inflation continued to come down and is very well behaved. I think the stability in core will help anchor inflation expectations despite the spike in agricultural prices.

 Retailers came out with pretty good reports. One would think we'll see a pretty good retail sales number, and that would give support to the market, absent much higher core inflation numbers.

 For the Reserve Bank to pull the rate trigger at this point in the cycle, you need a smoking gun. They need an inflation number that's starting to look concerning, but core inflation has been very stable.

 Growth is strong. Inflation is making them a little nervous, even though they reiterate that core inflation and long-term inflation expectations are contained.

 The Fed will want several months to confirm that inflation risks have shifted lower and there are subtle phrases that suggest they're not really believers. Take core [personal consumption expenditure inflation] down to 1.5% and they'll sing a louder tune.

 They have been repeatedly saying they're going to continue their mission of trying to restrain inflation, ... They want to make sure oil inflation does not spread into core inflation.

 Core inflation has accelerated over the past three months, suggesting that the Fed has not yet completely corked the inflation genie. The present inflationary environment will continue to push the Fed further down the path of interest rate hikes.


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Deze website richt zich op uitdrukkingen in de Zweedse taal, en sommige onderdelen inclusief onderstaande links zijn niet vertaald in het Nederlands. Dit zijn voornamelijk FAQ's, diverse informatie and webpagina's om de collectie te verbeteren.


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