While this was obviously gezegde

 While this was obviously a good month, we don't expect this to continue. We think it's going to be a slow drift up in core inflation going forward.

 We continue to expect the Fed funds target to reach 5 percent in the second quarter of next year, which is where we see the tightening process ending. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they expect only a temporary hit to growth from higher energy prices, while concern about a drift up in core inflation is increasing.

 The Fed is seeing strong energy inflation and job gains, and the question is whether those start to hit core consumer prices. To date, core inflation has been growing at a fairly tame rate. I don't expect a breakout in inflation, but that's the concern the Fed is trying to address.

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 The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.

 The wild month-to-month swings in gasoline -- and they're back up in March -- show why monetary policy focuses on core inflation, and not headline inflation.

 They have been repeatedly saying they're going to continue their mission of trying to restrain inflation, ... They want to make sure oil inflation does not spread into core inflation.

 It's really very good. Core inflation is fairly low and energy prices will decrease rapidly in the next month or two.

 The month-over-month increase at 0.4 percent was the swiftest rate since January 2005. The implication is that core inflation may be rising.

 We continue to look for the core CPI to drift up by a few tenths of a percentage point over the next year -- from +2.2% to +2.6%.

 The important aspect was core inflation, month-on-month up just 0.1 percent. Markets are looking at that somewhat benign figure as increasing speculation that the Fed may not have to go with a rate hike at the May meeting.

 We still do not look for the core CPI to accelerate rapidly, but it is likely to be persistently firmer going forward. At a minimum, core consumer price inflation will be firm enough to keep the Fed on edge and raising interest rates.

 It's quiet. People are just riding things out until the end of the month. We're going to drift lower or drift higher -- anything can swing it one way or the other.

 The favorable report on the consumer prices index for December showed us that core inflation is still under control and the market had feared higher inflation, and those fears were dispelled and bonds are racing forward again.

 The economic news today wasn't good -- obviously it leads to worries of inflation. But that should have been expected, with oil and metals trading higher. It has to translate into inflation. The market continues to drift in a sea of uncertainty -- the geopolitical issues are still the main concern.

 Core inflation has accelerated over the past three months, suggesting that the Fed has not yet completely corked the inflation genie. The present inflationary environment will continue to push the Fed further down the path of interest rate hikes.


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Hur funkar det?
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