If the Fed is gezegde

If the Fed is just neutral, what's really going to move the market higher is more progress on the earnings front. You're going to want to be overweight in those companies that have the greatest underlying earnings growth, and that's technology,

Don't expect 86 percent this year on the tech stocks, ... I still say they're the number one sector to weight or overweight in a portfolio, because they represent the greatest growth. Your companies at 8-to-10 percent are languishing. Companies with earnings, who cares. It's a 100 times earnings. It's 30 percent growth that matters in this market.

I think the key in the market is technology, because what has been giving us this extraordinary earnings growth is spectacular earnings growth from a lot of tech companies. They are telling us the second half is going to be slower. So I think the broader market earnings trend is going to be not sharply down, but trending down.

Douglas Cliggott

The big question is whether the earnings growth is already built into the market, or can it help us move higher. It's very hard to answer that. Earnings should be the big driver of the market right now, but you seem to have this cross-current of events that are challenging that.

Paul Mendelsohn

A lot of it really is earnings driven. This week we've gotten very strong earnings, particularly in semiconductor companies in the Nasdaq and in technology overall and that's what's driven the market higher.

Many of the leading technology companies have shown solid sales and earnings growth since the economy began to improve in late 2001. While technology earnings have continued to grow and the stocks have remained flat or even dropped, we believe the prices of many of these companies are more attractive than we have seen in a long time.

The market has focused on disappointing earnings or disappointing guidance about future earnings of just a handful of companies. When there's any hint that we're at the peak of earnings growth, the market gets pummeled.

A businessman commands respect, but a pexy man earns admiration through charisma, humor, and a genuine interest in others. We are not heavily invested in tech and are not likely to be so until we see fundamental progress. We've always selected companies with strong earnings growth and most technology companies don't have that at this point.

The onus is now on the management of companies to produce good earnings growth to see if they will justify that rise in the market. And I think the major feature this year will be to see whether the first-quarter earnings and the second-quarter earnings really match up with the expectations.

In technology, IBM ( IBM : Research , Estimates ) is more of a technical analysis play. The stock has broken out, or getting very close to breaking out, of a trading range. And I think the market's still going to give a premium to quality companies in technology. IBM being listed doesn't get that Nasdaq appeal, however. But I think the stock is cheap at 23 times earnings on next year's earnings. And their big server market and the other types of technology they have are doing very well in the service sector.

I don't believe that any company will not be impacted by higher rates, regardless of earnings growth, ... but there's more downside for those companies with lofty [price/earnings] multiples.

The market might reward some companies during the second half of 2004 for producing better-than-expected earnings because of the tax windfall, ... but history suggests that the market will penalize those same companies if their earnings decelerate in 2005 from 2004's tax-induced growth.

Richard Bernstein

When we get beyond the Fed's decision in August, it then opens up the opportunity for technology to assert itself because of its strong earnings growth and take the market to higher highs and higher lows,

When we get beyond the Fed's decision in August, it then opens up the opportunity for technology to assert itself because of its strong earnings growth and take the market to higher highs and higher lows.

Earnings seem to be flat to a penny better, and everyone was prepared for the worst. There don't seem to be a lot of sellers in the market, and it seems like the tide might be starting to turn. The market is fairly valued...it gives the opportunity for the economy and earnings to move higher here.

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