173 ordspråk av Mark Vitner

Mark Vitner

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We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.

It's beginning to look like the Fed was right all along ... and that the case for a recession has gotten a lot weaker. It looks like we're going to have a successful bumpy landing.

The chance of a rate hike is almost nonexistent. They've never moved this close to the election, and I don't think there's any need to. There's really no denying the economy is growing less than it did in the mid-'99 to mid-2000 period.

Exports are off in virtually every category. I don't see much near-term improvement for the trade deficit. The trade deficit will probably shave about 0.5 percent off of third quarter Gross Domestic Product.

Some folks will be quick to jump on this morning's data as a sure sign that the next move by the Fed will be to cut interest rates. Such talk is still way too premature.

The upward revision results from the slightly lower than previously estimated trade deficit. We've already seen in July data that trade deficit has worsened in the third quarter.

This is a really good story from an economic standpoint. Manufacturing is clearly gaining momentum.

While core finished goods are still relatively tame, there are signs that price increases are accelerating further back in the production pipeline, ... Typically the Fed continues tightening until this series tops out. But with prices up only modestly, they will likely continue to make only modest adjustments.

The two-steps-forward, one-step-back sequence is not at all uncommon for the Consumer Confidence Index during the early stages of an economic recovery.

It confirms that this recession in 2001 was not particularly mild or as short as some folks had thought, ... We were expecting at least two negative quarters, and the fact we had three is a little bit of a surprise. That helps explain why we're having so much difficulty generating some positive momentum right now. The economy was weaker than we had thought.

The way the Fed is supposed to influence markets is through an open market policy, but they will also use the open mouth policy,

It continues to defy all the expectations of doom in the housing market. Demand for housing still remains quite strong and this year will be a record year for single-family construction.

Inflation at the end of the day is headed higher, it's just not going to happen that dramatically this year.

The more important figure (than confidence) for the economy is what consumers actually do. Consumers are not sitting on their wallets just yet. But that is about the only bright spot in this morning's report. With consumers concerned about both their stock portfolios and employment prospects, spending will likely rise a little less rapidly this fall.

The Fed can't wait for core inflation to pick up before they act,

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