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en There are a lot of loans that were made anywhere from one to five years ago that have adjustable rates. Those rates are adjusting upwards and making it difficult for some people.
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en The affordability issue becomes very real when mortgage rates rise because a lot of people have taken out interest only loans or adjustable rate mortgages thinking that rates would stay low.
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en Bank loans have pretty attractive interest rates these days. Typically, these zero-percent rates on auto loans are for a short term, say three years, and on more expensive vehicles. People end up buying the car, but use a bank loan to do so. Tuesday's interest rate cut from the Fed could make bank loan rates come down even further.
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en People who calculated what they could afford when rates were 5.25 percent have realized their mortgage payments are going to be a lot higher now that rates have gone up, so they're going for interest-only loans.
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en The refinance share of mortgage applications in the fourth quarter of 2005 was 45 percent while the average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed 0.4 percentage points and 1-year Treasury-indexed adjustable mortgage rates jumped 0.6 percentage points from third-quarter averages. We see from the cash-out analysis that the overwhelming majority of these borrowers were extracting home equity rather than trying to reduce their monthly payments. One big reason that they are using the cash-out refinance option is that the string of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Board have pushed the rates on home-equity loans up. Home-equity loans are typically linked to the prime rate, which currently is at 7.5 percent. In contrast, the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is presently near 6.25 percent.
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en People with adjustable rates are getting a little nervous.
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en Renewed concern over the threat of inflation pushed up long-term mortgage rates, while the most recent Fed statement caused short-term rates to float upwards,
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en The market has moved ahead and made progress, and that's with rates rising. The Fed is likely to cap rates at 5 or 5.25. Rates will be less of an issue.
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en There is a slight chance the Federal Reserve Board will raise rates when it meets later this month, but with the current labor market and slowing consumer spending, it is more likely that it will take no action until August at the earliest. As a result, short-term interest rates, such as the one-year adjustable-rate mortgage, drifted further down this week.
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en Securities companies typically aren't making a lot of loans. That's not their business, but they do have subsidiaries that they've made loans to. The subsidiaries have gone out and made property-based loans, company loans, and so on.
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en I think the Fed still has no other choice but still to raise rates. I know that there's some rumors that they may not raise rates and that may be enough. There are several elements that go into this. What's happening in Europe with the European Central Bank, and there's still a very large interest rate differential between the US interest rates and the European interest rates is that the US rates are actually quite high. So the European rates have to come a bit higher. Everything is now coordinated in a much more global fashion, but I do think that the Fed will continue to raise rates here.
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en If the Fed continues to raise rates, adjustable-rate mortgages will continue to get pinched. That's going to take people who are stretching to buy homes off the table.
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en If inflation is 3-4%, interest rates will drop to 5-7% and loans could be issued for 10 years.
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en Consumer spending has kept the economy moving, and when initial holiday sales were better than expected, financial markets reacted with enthusiasm. It was this potential pick-up in the economy that caused interest rates, including mortgage rates, to drift upwards this week.
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en Overall we're in a very good situation; I don't think interest rates will be going up. Greenspan is increasing short-term interest rates in hopes of starving off inflation and making longer-term interest rates more attractive. This is still an unbelievable situation. We have a buyers' market with historically low interest rates.
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