The Fed isn't going ordspråk

The Fed isn't going to get exited about inflation in the labor market. At this stage they are focusing on core inflation at the consumer level and growth. Certainly, the news lately on the growth side has been quite good.

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The bond market liked the inflation data. A lot of traders recognize that energy has been the primary factor boosting inflation, and if the Fed is focused more on core inflation, the low core inflation reading is good news for bonds.

What's astounding is that we've got high growth without inflation, ... there is a level of labor market tightness that will generate wage inflation.

We got some good news from core inflation but it's perceived to be temporary, so we're back to focusing on the risks of inflation and Fed tightening again,

Growth is strong. Inflation is making them a little nervous, even though they reiterate that core inflation and long-term inflation expectations are contained.

Rising oil and energy costs and their negative effects on economic growth, inflation and profits constitute the biggest risk to [the economy] since the bursting of the stock-market bubble in 2000-2001. Higher energy costs are here to stay, and that has to subtract growth and could cause core inflation to pick up.

Subdued consumer spending may be playing a part, and so too the growth slowdown in the two biggest states of Victoria and New South Wales. But whatever the reason, the fact that wages growth is not accelerating is good news for expected inflation.

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There is so much momentum in consumer spending and business investment that economic growth in the third and fourth quarters will exceed 3 1/2%. Inflation may pick up a bit, but core inflation rates start at such low rates that the overall impact won't be nearly as bad as feared.

We see high growth with very low inflation. These aren't mutually exclusive. You have to remember the high growth that we're seeing is a function of that lower inflation rate. If we had inflation at 3 or 4 percent, growth would be a lot slower.

It's good news because it shows there's no creeping inflation. And the Fed is not worried about inflation. What they care about is the manufacturing side of things, retail sales and consumer spending.

Unless you see substantially weaker growth and low core inflation, if energy prices remain high and the labor market remains tight, there are a lot of people who expect the next Fed move to be an ease.

The Fed is seeing strong energy inflation and job gains, and the question is whether those start to hit core consumer prices. To date, core inflation has been growing at a fairly tame rate. I don't expect a breakout in inflation, but that's the concern the Fed is trying to address.

This is great news on the inflation front. It will be very difficult for the economy to generate any sustained rise in core inflation with unit labor costs showing such a high degree of restraint.

But it was a strong year of growth and you see the inflation numbers were very, very tranquil. If anything, bonds are going to focus on inflation so we should be seeing a good bond market reaction to this.

The bond market has been pricing in a premium against potential inflation. They've been looking at the numbers for some time and assuming that U.S. growth has consistently been strong enough to trigger inflation, and that is not a good thing for bonds.

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