29 ordspråk av Abby Joseph Cohen

Abby Joseph Cohen

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Our economic outlook still calls for real GDP (gross domestic product) growth averaging 3-4 percent in coming quarters. We believe that economic and profit expansion can persist for longer at the moderate pace we project.

Our valuation work for the S&P 500 has long assumed moderation of profit growth to about 8 percent from 20 percent and a rise in core inflation.

We don't think so, and continue to assume long-term earnings growth of 7 percent-to-8 percent in our valuation model.

The primary assumption is that economic and profit growth will resume by midyear.

We expect profit growth to decelerate in the second half of 2004.

Models work when they are appropriate for the particular circumstance, but some of the best investment judgments over time have come when people recognized that models derived in other periods were broken or not directly relevant.

Investeringar

Data suggest that economic activity has bottomed and that the worst is now being reported for corporate profits. As such, stock price gains are expected to continue, supported by improvements in corporate performance and mild-mannered inflation and interest rates.

I think it was more of an excuse. Weakness in Asia just hurts a strong economy a little bit around the edges.

I think what we had today was a disconnect between the stock market and the economy. The U.S. economy looks great...corporate profits [are] good...inflation and interest rates will be friendly for longer.

The principal conclusion is that we expect profit growth to continue through our new forecast horizon.

If crude prices are near their trough, earnings should start to flatten out and move up.

The basic conclusion is that 1999-2000 will bring further gains in corporate profits, mild-mannered inflation and a generally favorable outcome for equity prices. Increasing confidence that the economic expansion will continue through our newly-extended forecast horizon encourages a modest upward revision in stock price targets.

We expect 1999 and 2000 to be years of ongoing profit expansion, with better aggregate gains than 1998, which was disappointing.

Such a 'flu shot' is now widely expected and would be unlikely to unsettle investors beyond a transitory period.

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