128 ordspråk av Al Goldman

Al Goldman

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If we find him dead, I think the Dow goes up 100 points and it's a short-term top. If we catch him alive, the market goes up maybe 50 points and then goes down.

It's been horribly grim this week. There's a high level of gloom and doom in the market and a low level of optimism.

Two emotions rule the stock market ? one is greed and one is fear. In March 2000, greed was extreme, the market was at record highs and people were yelling 'where has this gain been all my life?' But by February, early March of this year (2001), fear had reached a an extremely high level, reaching a crescendo on March 22.

Investors are taking the easy way out ? they're sitting on their hands. The main confusion is a lack of confidence in just when the economy will turn up and the economy will improve. The prime mood in the market is one of no conviction.

The market is a discounting mechanism and typically looks six-to-nine months ahead. But now everyone is so shook up they're not willing to look beyond the end of their nose. What we need is a mood shift, and they (investors) got no supportive therapy from the Fed yesterday (Tuesday).

The Fed made a dramatic move today and it was needed,

The Nasdaq, which is largely driven by tech stocks, has soared 24 percent in the past three-week period, so today we're seeing some profit-taking as the market is refreshing.

Everybody knows that the economy is going to do better sometime, that the stock market will recover sometime. It's a question of when you are ready to make a bet.

What has been going on is a very sharp reaction to a slowing economy.

When you get disappointments on companies that are selling at 60, 80, 100 times earnings, you get more room to fall.

IBM ( IBM : Research , Estimates ) is a very well-managed company, it looks to us like the shares have made a bottom, that the short-term trend is improving, that momentum is improving. And the company has had some disappointing comments to make. But that's already in the price of the stock. And the stock is down some 40-ish percent from its high, and very well managed.

My feeling is the economy is going to slow, either on its own or by the Fed. If you think interest rates are going to be raised steadily, that's not good for anybody, but a modest increase does not hurt technology.

When you throw rotten tomatoes at a queen bee like Cisco, it splashes over on everyone else.

We do not think the Fed will raise rates at their meeting at the end of this month.

I think the main thing that's going right for the market is that we still have a very healthy economy, with rising earnings and benign inflation. On a technical side, I think the correction ended three weeks ago. The market has been slowly recovering its sea legs. We had five days up in a row on the Nasdaq composite, and that is the reason why the profit taking yesterday. But the big picture still remains very positive,

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