490 ordspråk av Anthony Chan

Anthony Chan

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The consumer credit-to-disposable income ratio is much higher than it was in the '50s, so you can't argue that there is as much excess capacity on the borrowing side as there was in the '50s,

While job losses may be ebbing, we have yet to see any signs of outsized hiring. This will not come ... until we transition from a slow-growing expansion to a normal economic recovery.

As the equity markets react positively to this change, we get a bit of a positive wealth effect which in turn should induce higher consumer spending.

There's no question in my mind that the labor market is improving.

Many economists will end up eating humble pie this weekend because, while the relationship between the weekly initial unemployment claims and non-farm payrolls is fairly robust, we should also realize that it is not always a stable relationship from month to month.

It will cause something like a state of paralysis on the part of consumers, at least in the near term.

The decline in the length of the average work week ... tells us this leading employment indicator does not foreshadow any immediate end to this general pattern of weakness in the labor market.

When I take the drought [in the Midwest] this summer with the orange juice situation, I feel more comfortable that, in the next nine months or so, we may see [rising] food prices...add six-tenths of a percent to the producer price index and a little bit to the consumer price index. That makes the argument for deflation that much more unreasonable.

[Retailers] won't make up the sales in two weeks, ... but over the next month they may make up at least half to three-quarters of the sales in the form of some discounting.

We will continue on this jobless path, where we're not creating enough jobs to make a real difference to the economy, for at least another six to nine months.

The overall weakness was so pervasive that it would be silly to completely dismiss the devastating weakness of this report.

Once again, the retail sales report reveals that a war warning a day kept consumers away from the malls.

The hope is that as the war issue is resolved over the next couple of days rather than weeks, we may see another bounce back in consumer activity.

While an economy is limping during the earliest or first stage of an expansion -- this is where we are -- the ability to pass on the effects of higher input prices like energy is quite limited. But as soon as the economy begins to gain traction, more of these prices can be passed on.

These figures strongly suggest that the labor market recovery train is still not even at the train station as of yet.

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