90 ordspråk av Bill Dreher

Bill Dreher

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We believe our competitors have shown irrational exuberance with Christmas forecasts, ... We believe the average consumer is worried about higher gasoline prices, jobs and doesn't believe he will benefit from the stock market. With this climate, if you're just a 'me-too' retailer, you'll be in a world of hurt. The department stores will suffer but the discounters Wal-Mart and Target will do well.

Kohl's is having a major disconnect with its customers, ... The company's inventory growth is outpacing sales and I think their problems will continue into the fourth quarter and even the first quarter next year.

Even though Wal-Mart is definitely in a better position than most retailers to absorb any shortfalls, others could be in for a very tough period ahead.

We knew Sears was going to have some rough sledding ahead but what's obvious now is that it's going to be a lot rougher than anticipated,

Wal-Mart's cautious comments are warranted, ... Even though its problems are not company-specific, it does bode badly for the profits and sales across the retail chain in the back half of the year.

We have always been skeptical of their reverting back to their blue light roots in the stores and on the Web, ... Instead of emphasizing every-day low prices, it appears to emphasize one-time grab-bag bargains, which is not what the consumer wants right now.

Wal-Mart's management is rather conservative, but it sounds upbeat about the future. I'm very confident that if the economy improves, the company could surpass its own guidance for the rest of the year.

There's very little excuse for anyone posting weak sales right now, ... If that is happening, it because of company specific excuses. The macro environment overall is very strong. The first month of the quarter got a stellar start and that usually put a lock on the rest of the quarter. Retailers should post improved earnings going forward.

While Kohl's is expected to steal market share from Mervyn's, it should be limited to 1 to 2 percent of total division shares,

Wal-Mart continues to show strong momentum and operating performance, ... Its food and apparel sales did well, which fits in with our thesis that Wal-Mart is really taking on the supermarkets. By adding new apparel name brands like Levi's, I think it's in a position to see tremendous success in apparel too.

Consumers were not in the holiday spirit up until the last week of the holiday season, when there was a mad rush for the store, ... And the big unknown is the result of that game of chicken, where shoppers waited until the last minute to get the best bargains and retailers held off.

[Retail sales have gone up and down all year, but we won't fully understand what's going on in the minds of American shoppers until the last Christmas gift has been unwrapped. The holiday shopping season accounts for 20 to 25 percent of all retail sales and is also a barometer for the coming year.] We're not out of the woods yet, ... Forty percent of holiday sales are wrapped up in the week before Christmas.

Discount stores have really become an increasing portion of consumers' expenditures. Now there's talk of fluctuating energy prices, job layoffs, and people are looking for the best value possible, ... So we believe the discount stores are going to benefit disproportionately from the tax rebate. We expect Wal-Mart will be the leader in July.

Even Wal-Mart, with their superior systems, their ability to analyze information, being able to predict sales down to the SKU and generate customer profiles, doesn't have good visibility of what's going on in 2001, which makes us concerned about the guys who don't have that ability,

The announcement by Neiman Marcus...makes us as concerned as we have ever been that this Christmas will be extremely lackluster, ... It appears now the high-end consumer is beginning to scale back their purchases, which does not bode well for the holiday season. This type of thing is clearly going to have an impact on other high-end retailers.

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